Sales will determine the wisdom of the current strategy and marketing. Pretty confident that when the HOG 4th QTR and 2020 Annual Financials are released on Feb 2, they are going to be shocking. HD shipped 214,000 motorcycles worldwide in 2019. Which was down -6.5% from 2018. HD Revenue was down -8.0% in 2019 vs 2018.
2020 shipments have been dramatically worse so far. By 3rd Qtr 2020 they were down -28% vs the prior year to 124,000 motorcycles shipped. HD full year 2020 motorcycle shipments are on-track to be down to around 160,000 motorcycles, down about -28 to -30% for the full year 2020 vs 2019.
The trend of massive losses in motorcycle sales is unsustainable without some type of massive change such as a corporate take-over or buy-out. My prediction - 2021 is the year that the new CEO and CFO strip the costs out of the company and prepare it for sale by either the end of 2021 or sometime in 2022. That's why there is so little innovation or technology investments in the recent model releases.
Unfortunately US Marketshare has also plummeted from almost 60% several years ago to almost 40% of the US heavy motorcycle sales. My guess is HD slides down into the mid-30's % Market share during 2021, as alternative products from competitors continue to eat away at HD's once dominant position in Touring and Cruising motorcycles. Sad but true.