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[muddypaws]

www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/02/20/did-harley-davidson-inc-make-its-numbers-by-using.aspx

[OBB]

www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/02/20/did-harley-davidson-inc-make-its-numbers-by-using.aspx

Fixed the link for you. It's missing the first w in your post.

[RoadDawg]

Sales might be down due to Victory, Indian and a few others, but the Harleys will still hold their value on resale better than the others. I've heard a lot of good things about Victory motorcycles but don't care for their looks at all.

[Cat Eye]

That graph is very misleading....because if you notice the "0"  for shipment and sales are on a different plane.  And it's states it for the 4th quarters only....and that's when they start shipping the new models. 

These types of % graphs are worthless....so in 2012 and 2013 they sold more bikes than they shipped!  I sure wish my business can do that magic.  What quarter does HD do their model year shutdown anyway.

I still feel Harley has one of the best business models in the world and from the Fools article, MOCO is just trying to manages production to meet market and economic forecasts which is all crystal ball gazing based on probability from economic forecasting.

Indian has a long way to go before they are even close to HD.  Just think how boring Harley would be if they only offer 5 different bike in only 3 colors.  What fun would that be while at bike week you come out of the venue and you see 50+ bikes just like yours in the parking lot.

[JCZ]

That graph is very misleading....because if you notice the "0"  for shipment and sales are on a different plane.  And it's states it for the 4th quarters only....and that's when they start shipping the new models. 

These types of % graphs are worthless....so in 2012 and 2013 they sold more bikes than they shipped!  I sure wish my business can do that magic.  What quarter does HD do their model year shutdown anyway.

I still feel Harley has one of the best business models in the world and from the Fools article, MOCO is just trying to manages production to meet market and economic forecasts which is all crystal ball gazing based on probability from economic forecasting.

Indian has a long way to go before they are even close to HD.  Just think how boring Harley would be if they only offer 5 different bike in only 3 colors.  What fun would that be while at bike week you come out of the venue and you see 50+ bikes just like your in the parking lot.

Like the 100th anniv. silver and black in 2003?     Where did all those bikes go, anyway? 

[tdkkart]

What fun would that be while at bike week you come out of the venue and you see 50+ bikes just like yours in the parking lot.

Would this be the place for the smart ass comment about flat black Street Glides??

[Cat Eye]

Would this be the place for the smart ass comment about flat black Street Glides??

LOL...that reminds me of my first NASCAR race.  I told my wife after we parked our car to look around for landmarks so we could find our car after the race.....she said no problem "we are parked by the #3 flag".  As everyone knows who has been to a race....there are hundreds of them.

[Rooster]

Like the 100th anniv. silver and black in 2003?     Where did all those bikes go, anyway? 

I believe they had 3 runs of those 100 year anny Black and Silver.

[OBB]

Like the 100th anniv. silver and black in 2003?     Where did all those bikes go, anyway? 

I think Chip's hoarding one in his garage isn't he?

[SBB]

I think Chip's hoarding one in his garage isn't he?

Yup I am.
Part of the plan for the garage at Eagle's Nest is a shelf to set the Silver and Black on.
It has been a great bike and it's a keeper.

SBB

[FLSTFI Dave]

I have a 100th anniversary Fatboy, the silver and black tins have less than 300 miles on them.  I changed them out for the Black with blue real fire limited paint set for the 100th.  See my avatar. 

Silver and Black was the best color for 03, and in my opinion the best Anniversary color I have seen.  I have a 13 Anniversary bike also.

[9 1/2 Beers]

 This report came out today  :

Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) “Lowering our Q1 ’16 estimates following weak U.S. sell-through trends in March” We are lowering our Q1 US retail unit sales forecast 300bps to -6.0% (33,350), which is below consensus of -0.1%.  Shipments tracked to 78,500 (-1.4% Y/Y), while ASPs trended to $15,456. Following double-digit Y/Y declines in January, a slight recovery in February, trends weakened further in March.  HOG lost market share at an accelerated pace Y/Y in March, resulting in an overall market share decline in Q1. Within our data we observed consumers buying an increasing % of current model-year bikes compared to the previous model year, the first time in over 2 years   
 

[guppytrash]

I think Ray Charles could see this coming!

Read on this forum and you find most the people who are here and have been for a while saying "no more NEW HD's for me"
Most here CAN afford to go in and throw down $45k for a new limited but are NOT willing too.
The product simply does not match the premium price tag.

Every now and then I get a weakness to just go get a new CVO... then the dealer says $15k for your trade in (2009 CVO ultra) and $40k+++ for the exact same model new.
Then reality... the new one will be about 30-40hp less than mine until I drop another $6k.  Add it up and in no time you are north of $50k



Granted the new one comes with all the new options....fairing mail slot, coolant leaking option, new stereo nav that I now here people complaining about and going back to their garmins.


Not to worry though... you will still get the top of the line 110 motor and all of its uhhhh???....character?

[dayne66]

I concur, guppytrash. Dealer will give me $27k cdn for my '12......then another $22k to 'up-grade' and start all over again. No thanks.

[guppytrash]

Yup
Project Rushmore...Project Rippoffmore.

From 08 touring to 09 with the frame change was a much bigger deal IMO but they didn't slam used prices on the 08's nearly as bad as they have with every thing pre Project Dumpmore.

Harley is showing signs of desperation... 750cc is an arena they will NOT be competitive in. 

Again JMO, but anyone buying a Harley 750cc is throwing a bunch of extra cash at a tank badge.  And that badge is not important to Gen Y and Gen millennium.