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[Puzzled]

Wednesday, 26 July 2017
   
Harley-Davidson

More lay-offs loom at Harley as second quarter domestic U.S. sales plummet ahead of significant peak season market decline

The shocking headline news is that Harley-Davidson’s second quarter domestic U.S. sales were down a massive -9.3 percent compared to the second quarter of 2016, a result that is way worse than the one they were expecting in a peak selling season where total domestic U.S. new motorcycle sales were down by around 7 percent for the quarter.




This puts Harley’s domestic sales down by - 7.9 percent for the first half of the year and leaves their domestic market share in the 601+cc category at 48.5 percent for the second quarter (compared to 49.5 percent for Q2 in 2016) and at 49.6 percent for the first half year 2017. The company is citing “weak industry sales on soft used bike process” as among the Q2 impactors.
The company says that dealer inventory is down by approximately 7,200 motorcycles year on year and that it will further cut production with its revised unit shipments now forecast at between 241,000 and 246,000 for the full year 2017, 39,000 to 44,000 of them in Q3 – down by between 10 and 20 percent from Q3 2017. Total second quarter shipments were 81,807 units (down by -7.2 percent on Q2 2016 and are 152,638 for the half year (down by -10.8 percent of the first half of 2016).
Touring model sales were up by +13.4 percent for the quarter, at 44.8 percent of the model mix, and are 43.1 percent of the mix YTD, up by +4.4 percent; their Street/Sportster lines were 24.3 percent of Q2 shipments, but Cruisers, which includes V-Rods and CVOs as well as Softails and Dyna models, were down by -11.8 percent in terms of the overall model mix, at 30.9 percent of the total (33 percent/-4.7 percent YTD).
Originally the company had forecast that 2017 would be “flat to modestly down for them,” but they are now having to accept that the “new normal” Levatich referenced in February means “down double digits” for the year, with massive restructuring of channel inventory levels not just a first quarter fix, as originally suggested.
The cut in production will result in further lay-offs, likely of hourly paid staff, as the company continues to “aggressively manage our cost structure,” CEO Matt Levatich said, in acknowledging the “unexpected magnitude of the industry softening in the second quarter.”

[Puzzled]

"Harley shares tanked -11 percent"

Managing supply, further reducing costs, and continuing pursuit of their previously announced 10-year strategies, not least the training of 2 million new riders and introduction of 100 new models, are the three pillars of recovery that the Harley ranch is bet on at this time – with much now hinging on market reaction to the new 2018 model year introductions.
CFO John Ollin and CEO Matt Levatich both acknowledged that “our biggest opportunities for growth is outside the United States,” and both have reaffirmed their stated objective of seeing at least 50 percent of sales being made internationally within 10 years, and the recently announced plan to build an assembly plant in Thailand to service the ASEAN region – believed to be a direct response to U.S. withdrawal from the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade deal that would have seen tariff barriers reduced; a withdrawal that Levatich is on record as saying “would have helped us a lot.”
Harley’s total worldwide motorcycle retail sales were 81,388 in the second quarter, down by -6.7 percent, with worldwide sales -5.7 percent YTD. Of that 31,720 units were international sales, which is down by -2.3 percent for the second quarter, and are -2.1 percent for the YTD.
Their Europe, Middle East and Africa region was the best performing of their export markets, with sales down by only 1.6 percent for the second quarter and -2.1 percent YTD; their European 601+cc market share was up by 0.2 percent for the second quarter at 10.3 percent, but remains -0.9 percent for the YTD at 9.4 percent.
Harley’s Asia Pacific market was down -3.2 percent (-6.0 percent YTD); Latin America -8.5 percent for Q2 (up by +5.3 percent YTD), with Canada up by 0.4 percent in Q2, but down by -1.5 percent TYD.
Harley added 13 more dealers internationally during the second quarter, and has reconfirmed its intention to grow its international dealer network by between 150 and 200 new outlets between 2016 and 2020.
In the press release that accompanied the release of their results, Matt Levatich is quoted as saying: “We are pleased with our ability to deliver strong margins in the quarter despite challenging market conditions, particularly in the U.S. Given U.S. industry challenges in the second quarter and the importance of the supply and demand balance for our premium brand, we are lowering our full-year shipment and margin guidance.
“Our long-term strategy, focused on building the next generation of Harley-Davidson riders, is our true north. Our new product investment is one pillar of our long-term strategy to build riders globally, and we are energized by the strength of our model year 2018 motorcycles coming later this summer.”
Revenue from the Motorcycles and Related Products segment was down in the second quarter of 2017 versus prior year “largely due to lower motorcycle shipments.” Operating margin as a percent of revenue increased versus the prior year quarter primarily as a result of mix favorability driven by demand for the Milwaukee-Eight powered touring motorcycles and lower SG&A [Selling, general and administrative] spending.
The company says it now expects full year 2017 operating margin to be down approximately 1 percentage point compared to 2016. The company continues to expect 2017 capital expenditures to be $200 million to $220 million.
Shares in Harley-Davidson tanked by nearly 11 percent within an hour of trading opening on the day the second quarter figures were released (July 18) in the heaviest daily trading seen in more than two years. The share price recovered slightly during the day (from a 12-month low), but were left trading some 25 percent lower than their 12-month high of $62.94 in March.


 Posted by  DealerWorld     at  01:54       

[Toofast_28]

There's a lot of things in this release that point to flooding the market finally catching up to them and slaughtering their sales (new and used)

[muddypaws]

No surprise....Some dealers still have three year old new bikes in stock.

[scottt]

In my opinion; the only solution for Harley looking forward is to take there company back private.

Investors buy stocks in companies that are growing, there is no reason to invest into a shrinking company and/or market. Does anyone see reason to believe that Harley is going to grow? As I have read before, they aren't making more baby boomers. The next generation is not going to buy bikes like the boomers did.

Harley needs to go back to being a private company so they can focus on being a great motorcycle company not on expanding sales. Next, reduce production to one less than demand. Focus on building the most reliable, highest quality Harley's possible. Let consumer demand drive sales vs expensive advertising and marketing.

Harley did best when you felt lucky to be able to secure a new bike.

My opinion, what do you think?

[coloradotom]

They think they're doing awesome. I mean just look at the bonuses and awards the exec's take. But York plant, oh half you guys are fired.

[Phantom309]

This is great news, I love to hear when HD is hurting. They have done a good job of hurting our wallets while still continuing to sell their product with crap quality. What goes around, comes around ... glad to see it's finally biting them in the a$$. I honestly wouldn't care if the greedy MOCO closed the doors for good because my next bike is never going to be another HD anyway. I doubt that would actually happen after all these years, but no sweat off my balls if it did. 

[muddypaws]

I guess it pays great to do a crappy job. Sign me up..

[ridefar]

You guys are all right and well said!

Stock driven company and the business decisions are made to sell stock, not with emphasis on product quality.

Seems a handful of people continue to prosper at the top, and the rest of the business falls short and they do not care just so long as they get theirs.

[coloradotom]

GM operated under a "cost culture" just like HD does, with the bean counters running the show, and they knowingly sold defective vehicles and they got dragged before Congress for it. I'd like to know when its HDs turn?

[load97]

Just HD, get real. Drag all the manufacturers there if that's the case.

[J.D.]

AMF round #2.

[ultrarider123]

AMF round #2.

I don't know if it goes that far.  I'm not sure if you were around or not during those days but those were some bleak days for Harley.  Yes AMF kept them alive but just barely.  NOBODY wanted a new Harley in the 70's, specifically the mid to late 70's.  We had a dealer in our small NE Alabama town that couldn't give 'em away....they tried (local AM radio contest...another story for another thread).  It's not quite that bad today and while there may be quality issues with some design and parts suppliers, porous cases AIN'T one of em.  You had to have a dribble cloth under the new Harleys on the showroom...not something heard of these days.  It could be worse (and may get worse) but "AMF round #2"....don't think so.

However, you are entitled to your opinion and to make your point......

[J.D.]

Agreed, not exactly, but there are some eerie similarities.

[Para Bellum]

This is great news, I love to hear when HD is hurting. They have done a good job of hurting our wallets while still continuing to sell their product with crap quality. What goes around, comes around ... glad to see it's finally biting them in the a$$. I honestly wouldn't care if the greedy MOCO closed the doors for good because my next bike is never going to be another HD anyway. I doubt that would actually happen after all these years, but no sweat off my balls if it did.

While I agree completely that HD did those things, the blame lies with the past CEO--he was the one who cut the quality of every part on the bike, so the company would make more money on each part...not to mention the extra money the MoCo and dealers made from selling/installing replacement parts.  The extra profits made HD stock go up, so the CEO and his team made even more money from bonuses, stock sales, and pension increases.  The old CEO made his bundle and got out just as his cheap-product-screw-the-customer strategy started to catch up with the company.

Now the new CEO, Levatich, is stuck with trying to rebuild the product quality, reputation, and the corporate culture, all while dealing with the fallout (lower sales, loss of confidence by the public, increased competition from Indian and the metric cruisers)--while also being hounded by investors, the board, and the media wanting to know why sales are falling.  Lots of people saw the previous CEO running up profits and stock values, but didn't realize he was undercutting the company's future performance.  It makes it look like Levatich couldn't even keep a strong company going, when really he's trying to shore up a hollow company.  Bottom line, it's a chite show for Levatich.

[Road Dad]

Just curios of all the know it all's. Who here runs at least a $1B corporation with full P&L. If you do I think it's okay to comment. If not, why do you think you even should comment???  You are just a keyboard warrior and it's pathetic you even think you have a point.

[Twolanerider]

Just curios of all the know it all's. Who here runs at least a $1B corporation with full P&L. If you do I think it's okay to comment. If not, why do you think you even should comment???  You are just a keyboard warrior and it's pathetic you even think you have a point.

You're at a site whose sole purpose is public commentary on topics of shared interest. 

[Twolanerider]

Was going to put a small font and parenthetically noted (dipstick) at the end of that ^ but remembered that doing so would be impolitic.  So I didn't.  The moderators should be proud of me for my dedication to site esprit de corps.

[Road Dad]

You just made my point.

Was going to put a small font and parenthetically noted (dipstick) at the end of that ^ but remembered that doing so would be impolitic.  So I didn't.  The moderators should be proud of me for my dedication to site esprit de corps.

[Twolanerider]

You just made my point.

Doesn't play well with others.

[Road Dad]

Not sure what that means. You have physiological issues?  Or do you try to intimidate me?  Either way it seems to be a you issue. 

Doesn't play well with others.

[Twolanerider]

Not sure what that means. You have physiological issues?  Or do you try to intimidate me?  Either way it seems to be a you issue.

This got boring fast.  Was expecting something actually entertaining.


So, to summarize, no, never mind.  He wouldn't get it until later anyway and I don't have the patience.


So, back to the thread.  Yeah, I wish Harley was run with improved insight also.

[Para Bellum]

Just curios of all the know it all's. Who here runs at least a $1B corporation with full P&L. If you do I think it's okay to comment. If not, why do you think you even should comment???  You are just a keyboard warrior and it's pathetic you even think you have a point.

Do you run a $1B corporation with full P&L?  If you don't, then by your own words you shouldn't be commenting here.

[TN]

I remember the previous CEO of HD shopping for new places to establish their headquarters or mother factory at the least for the concessions that other states, countries would provide to them for their presence. I think there was union negotiations going on at that time.

As far as my BILLION' dollar corporation experience goes.........I have none, maybe.

I like a heated discussion as much as anyone but the personal attacks I can do without, I'm very sensitive with cyberbullying so please respect that.

Carry on


TN

[FlaHeatWave]

Just curios of all the know it all's. Who here runs at least a $1B corporation with full P&L. If you do I think it's okay to comment. If not, why do you think you even should comment???  You are just a keyboard warrior and it's pathetic you even think you have a point.

Does anyone else find the above post as comical as I do???
 
There are folks on this forum that are (or have been) in Boardrooms of Public Companies, Manage $100M+ Programs, Own Multi-Million Dollar Companies, work on a Global Scale with Fortune 100 Companies, and more,,,

Yea, a bunch of kno-'nuthins here... LMFAO

[mark]

Just curios of all the know it all's. Who here runs at least a $1B corporation with full P&L. If you do I think it's okay to comment. If not, why do you think you even should comment???  You are just a keyboard warrior and it's pathetic you even think you have a point.

I think there are some kids on your lawn...

[G 97]

Just curios of all the know it all's. Who here runs at least a $1B corporation with full P&L. If you do I think it's okay to comment. If not, why do you think you even should comment???  You are just a keyboard warrior and it's pathetic you even think you have a point.

Or you could simply quote and specifically ask those directly who you find to be a keyboard warrior.  Rather than making a blanket comment.   Nevermind that a big part of any forum is for peeps to offer and share their own opinions on topics for discussion.   One doesn't have to be a CEO to offer an opinion. 

[Road Dad]

so let's change this to a commercial airplane. The captain is the CEO. How many here has a valid opinion on how to operate the airship? (I might have an unfair advantage being a Commercial pilot) but if you think you can run a Corporation why would you not think you can pilot an airliner. Easy answers because you can't, and your opinion is just another internet warrior wasting his breath.

But hey it's a free world. Knock your socks off thinking you matter

[Twolanerider]

so let's change this to a commercial airplane. The captain is the CEO. How many here has a valid opinion on how to operate the airship? (I might have an unfair advantage being a Commercial pilot) but if you think you can run a Corporation why would you not think you can pilot an airliner. Easy answers because you can't, and your opinion is just another internet warrior wasting his breath.

But hey it's a free world. Knock your socks off thinking you matter

There is a simple solution here.  If you're of a mind that good natured and friendly conversation between generally informed adults of generally comparable interests and often surprisingly interwoven backgrounds in a format and on a forum whose primary (if not sole) intent is precisely that type of conversation you can, and I say this will all due sincerity and respect, go away.

Or not.  It is your choice. 

Some of the conversations here are obviously obtuse (at best) and pick up good natured teasing and even ridicule (can one say "oil threads") as they might deserve.  Others, such as this one, are understood to be "curb racing."  The chatter among people with an interest who also (surprisingly often) have at least enough of a background to have some moderate insight enough to have that conversation; at least at a an informed journeymen's level.

If this level of conversation annoys or offends you please understand that no one here wishes to harm your (apparently) tender sensibilities.  If that is happening I would offer, and again I say this with all due sincerity and respect, that you might consider finding other fora more suited to your elevated understandings and that does not insult your patience and intelligence; as we mere riders here apparently do.

Should you choose to disregard this sincerely offered and respectfully given advice please note, however, that should you choose to stay and continue to (lamely and pedantically) bitch and (poorly) attempt further ridicule, well; most of us really just won't give a flying f&#k and we will make fun of you for a brief period.  Then we'll get bored and simply disregard your nonsense.

By the way, have a good day  .

[iski]

Was going to put a small font and parenthetically noted (dipstick) at the end of that ^ but remembered that doing so would be impolitic.  So I didn't.  The moderators should be proud of me for my dedication to site esprit de corps.

This

thread

is

dipsticked.

Proof that I had to look up the word "impolitic" since I thought it might be some sort of parasitic politicritter.    I like esprit de corps, recall a young lady who used to wear that fragrance....   

[Twolanerider]

 recall a young lady who used to wear that fragrance....   

Had a "personal hygiene" comment to follow that.  It would be impolitic to waste more beer  .

[G 97]

so let's change this to a commercial airplane. The captain is the CEO. How many here has a valid opinion on how to operate the airship? (I might have an unfair advantage being a Commercial pilot) but if you think you can run a Corporation why would you not think you can pilot an airliner. Easy answers because you can't, and your opinion is just another internet warrior wasting his breath.

But hey it's a free world. Knock your socks off thinking you matter

Are you trying to tell us that only a pilot knows when a plane is flying or crashing.  That's rich. 

I don't need to be the pilot in order to determine if the plane is still flying or in the process of crashing.  It's called making a simple observation.  I can.

[Twolanerider]

Are you trying to tell us that only a pilot knows when a plane is flying or crashing.  That's rich. 

I don't need to be the pilot in order to determine if the plane is still flying or in the process of crashing.  It's called making a simple observation.  I can.

I'm not just a pilot; I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last spring.

[TN]

I've always wanted a Helicopter. 

[iski]

Had a "personal hygiene" comment to follow that.  It would be impolitic to waste more beer  .

Sorry Charlie?   

Have switched to coffee now.  If Harley starts making helicopters to help reverse the sales plummitage, I think they should avoid using flame paint patterns.

[TN]

Wheels thru Time has a handmade aeroplane powered by a early HD engine, maybe it is a henderson engine. None the less someone has flown it.


TN

[FLSTFI Dave]

so let's change this to a commercial airplane. The captain is the CEO. How many here has a valid opinion on how to operate the airship? (I might have an unfair advantage being a Commercial pilot) but if you think you can run a Corporation why would you not think you can pilot an airliner. Easy answers because you can't, and your opinion is just another internet warrior wasting his breath.

But hey it's a free world. Knock your socks off thinking you matter

I probably can not take off or land and air plane, I am not a pilot.  I have flown a plane once airborne.  I do fly often,  both in planes and helicopters.  I have no trouble knowing if the plane or helicopter is going up, or down, or turning.  I can often times determine when the pilot is having issues with the flight also.

I have bought 5 new CVO's since 2009, and 7 other Harleys in that time frame.  I average 24K a year on my bikes and my wife over 27K a year on her bikes.  So, I can tell when quality is going down, or improving.  I can also by looking at the floor at the dealer i have used since 07, tell when sales are good or bad.  I can also tell what models move and which ones don't.  Also pretty easy to see the demographic buying Harleys. 

Doesn't take a rocket scientist to see what some of Harley's problems are. 

[coloradotom]

so let's change this to a commercial airplane. The captain is the CEO. How many here has a valid opinion on how to operate the airship? (I might have an unfair advantage being a Commercial pilot) but if you think you can run a Corporation why would you not think you can pilot an airliner. Easy answers because you can't, and your opinion is just another internet warrior wasting his breath.

But hey it's a free world. Knock your socks off thinking you matter

Well, your co-pilot is the bean counter & he farmed out your C Checks to Jiffy Lube.

[Twolanerider]

Sorry Charlie?   

Have switched to coffee now.  If Harley starts making helicopters to help reverse the sales plummitage, I think they should avoid using flame paint patterns.

Maybe they'll decide to make boats again.  And a REALLY BIG ass Servicar to pull them to the lake with!  That would be a cool combination that would fail catastrophically in so many ways I might just have to have one  !

[Para Bellum]

your opinion is just another internet warrior wasting his breath.

If you're on a mission to save wasted breath...start with your own.   

[iski]

Maybe they'll decide to make boats again.  And a REALLY BIG ass Servicar to pull them to the lake with!  That would be a cool combination that would fail catastrophically in so many ways I might just have to have one  !

Right after they introduce the Harley V-Twin diesel truck line?   

Anyway.....Electric Servicar.  Except they wouldn't call it the Servicar.   Tri-E Glide.   Seriously.  Multi purpose, would also give the 90 year old HD rider something to consider.

[charles05663]

I think the MoCo should get into the walker business.  In a few years the majority of their customers will be clamoring for a HD branded walker with flames and ape hangers.  Since it will be billed to Medicare, they will be able to charge outlandish prices and the government will pay it without blinking an eye.  It will be a hit with the ladies too.

 

[phato1]

Maybe they'll decide to make boats again.  And a REALLY BIG ass Servicar to pull them to the lake with!  That would be a cool combination that would fail catastrophically in so many ways I might just have to have one  !

Put me done fer a boat, and while we're at it bring back the HD snowmobile (it's a northern thing)..
And one of Isky's Tri E Glide's to pull ' em both.

I am enjoying my 

[Twolanerider]

I think the MoCo should get into the walker business.  In a few years the majority of their customers will be clamoring for a HD branded walker with flames and ape hangers.  Since it will be billed to Medicare, they will be able to charge outlandish prices and the government will pay it without blinking an eye.  It will be a hit with the ladies too.

 

Oh gawd, the CVO version will cost THIRTEEN THOUSAND DOLLARS  !

[Twolanerider]

^^  For the life of me I can't figure out what would happen when a walker loses a lifter  ?  ^^

[charles05663]

^^  For the life of me I can't figure out what would happen when a walker loses a lifter  ?  ^^

HD will try and sell him the MoCo branded Viagra.  They will market it as the lifter will not collapse and the push rod will still be able to function as it was intended.

 

[sadunbar]

Just curios of all the know it all's. Who here runs at least a $1B corporation with full P&L.

I don't know if it counts or not as it doesn't quite meet your criteria, but I ran a $1/2B privately held company with full P&L for over a decade.  And I am quite clear in my mind as to why I have have not purchased a new MOCO motorcycle in over 10 years, after having purchased 6 new CVO's in the 6 years prior to my last purchase.  My two HD motorcycles are 10 and 17 years old respectively...  I have zero intention of buying another new MOCO product.  I'll leave it to the analyst, experts and commentators to figure out why...   

[Para Bellum]

I have zero intention of buying another new MOCO product.  I'll leave it to the analyst, experts and commentators to figure out why...   

Hmmm...because we're not worthy of HD's high quality and low prices?   

[FLSTFI Dave]

I don't know if it counts or not as it doesn't quite meet your criteria, but I ran a $1/2B privately held company with full P&L for over a decade.  And I am quite clear in my mind as to why I have have not purchased a new MOCO motorcycle in over 10 years, after having purchased 6 new CVO's in the 6 years prior to my last purchase.  My two HD motorcycles are 10 and 17 years old respectively...  I have zero intention of buying another new MOCO product.  I'll leave it to the analyst, experts and commentators to figure out why...   

My guess is all the issues with the 2007 CVO.  The major engine issues, and the complete lack of support from HD.  The fact that some of those issues still exist in the 110 motor 9 years later.  I know my 15 CVO, right at 2 years old had failed lifers take out the motor, and it had to be replaced by HD.  A couple weeks later and I would have been SOL....

[sadunbar]

My guess is all the issues with the 2007 CVO.  The major engine issues, and the complete lack of support from HD.  The fact that some of those issues still exist in the 110 motor 9 years later.  I know my 15 CVO, right at 2 years old had failed lifers take out the motor, and it had to be replaced by HD.  A couple weeks later and I would have been SOL....

    

[Rooster]

   

x2

[moscooter]

 

I'm sure that some of you older guys can relate to how it was with H.D.  back in the early 90's.  The local dealer in my area, announced the day/date he would be (taking orders) for all new upcoming models.  There was a line of customers from the front door to the parking lot.

The dealer had a yellow pad and took down what model you wanted and what color and you gave him an up front deposit.

That is the way it worked when I got my '93 Dyna Wide Glide.  Rode it for about 5-6 years and sold it on consignment at a local bike shop for only a few hundred dollars less than I paid.........as I recall.  Then I drove from Raleigh,  N.C. clear up to New York state to pick up my new RK Classic (1999) model with the first Twin cam motor.

[J.D.]

Late '90s - early '00s, when a local (rural) dealer got a new bike shipment notice, they used to have a "lottery" drawing amongst all the interested buyers to be able to buy it for MSRP, regardless of what color arrived - take it or leave it.

[TN]

http://www.worldipreview.com/news/harley-davidson-continues-fight-against-counterfeiters-14450




TN

[coloradotom]

http://www.worldipreview.com/news/harley-davidson-continues-fight-against-counterfeiters-14450

TN

Clothes company problems.