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Author Topic: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low  (Read 3609 times)

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J.D.

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HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« on: March 06, 2020, 06:31:20 PM »

26.19 at close.

Sad.
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iski

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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2020, 02:42:16 AM »

Harley stock was fun to own in the 1990s & early 2000s.  Last time I owned any was 20 or so years ago.  Now it is indeed sad.
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J.D.

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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #2 on: March 09, 2020, 05:43:48 PM »

Another blood bath for HOG today dropping another 10%  to 23-1/2.
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scottt

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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #3 on: March 09, 2020, 09:56:35 PM »

Hope Harley is able to buy back stock at this price. In my humble opinion, Harley needs to become a private company and stop trying to make stockholders happy at the expense of there business and customers. Harley needs a big picture long term plan.

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mark

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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #4 on: March 10, 2020, 08:47:37 AM »

Hope Harley is able to buy back stock at this price. In my humble opinion, Harley needs to become a private company and stop trying to make stockholders happy at the expense of there business and customers. Harley needs a big picture long term plan.

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I agree on the private company aspect, but they need to develop new customers...how to do that, I don’t know (I do have a solution, but HD won’t like it).  The boomers are only going to be buying for a few more years, after that, HD will only have the generations that aren’t riding to try to sell to.
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RoadTrip

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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #5 on: March 10, 2020, 09:18:20 AM »

The days of large family-owned private companies is long gone. And I doubt anyone in the Harley or Davidson families has the scratch to pull it off.

These days, “going private” usually means private equity (PE). In my experience, PE firms are harder on companies than public shareholders, as they load-up the company on debt and then sell-off key assets and lay-off employees to meet the increased cash flow demands.

Look for a merge or acquisition in the not-so-distant future.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2020, 04:45:04 PM by RoadTrip »
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iski

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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #6 on: March 10, 2020, 01:00:46 PM »

The days of large family-owned private companies is long gone. And I doubt anyone in the Harley or Davidson families has the scratch to pull it off.

These days, “going private” usually means private equity (PE). In my experience, PE firms are harder on companies than public shareholders, as they load-up the company on debt and then sell-off key assets and lay-off employees to meet the increased cash flow demands.

Look for a merge or acquisition in the not-so-distantfuture.

HOG has been on that trajectory for several years now.  The window of opportunity to turn that around has basically closed and they had several years to work on it.  Not pleased about any of this, am figuring a foreign buyer (in the next few years if not sooner) & then it's anybody's guess what happens.  Better if a US buyer takes over but mostly because of geography.
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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #7 on: March 10, 2020, 01:47:37 PM »

I don't think its as much to blame on Boomer's as it seems.  I'm 55 and born in the crossover year between Boomer's & Gen X and I have at least 20+ years of riding and buying left.  I see Price, Quality & Features as the main reason people aren't buying.  A couple of those reasons are responsible for myself and some friends for not buying in the last year alone!  The realization is it will survive.....but its never gonna be what it was.  The stock price is a CEO's & top management's report card, as I see it their not passing and putting another team member in charge isn't gonna help.
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Eqcons

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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #8 on: March 10, 2020, 02:24:21 PM »

I don't think its as much to blame on Boomer's as it seems.  .... I see Price, Quality & Features as the main reason people aren't buying.  A couple of those reasons are responsible for myself and some friends for not buying in the last year alone!  ......

I couldn't agree more.
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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #9 on: March 10, 2020, 03:04:01 PM »

I don't think its as much to blame on Boomer's as it seems.  I'm 55 and born in the crossover year between Boomer's & Gen X and I have at least 20+ years of riding and buying left.  I see Price, Quality & Features as the main reason people aren't buying.  A couple of those reasons are responsible for myself and some friends for not buying in the last year alone!  The realization is it will survive.....but its never gonna be what it was.  The stock price is a CEO's & top management's report card, as I see it their not passing and putting another team member in charge isn't gonna help.
Sadly I agree.

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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #10 on: March 10, 2020, 03:34:04 PM »

I'm at Daytona Bike Week and it was hard to find the display for Harley. Any farther down the track and they would be out in the  street.
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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #11 on: March 11, 2020, 02:54:52 AM »

I'm at Daytona Bike Week and it was hard to find the display for Harley. Any farther down the track and they would be out in the  street.
How sad!
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FLSTFI Dave

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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #12 on: March 11, 2020, 08:39:05 AM »

I don't think its as much to blame on Boomer's as it seems.  I'm 55 and born in the crossover year between Boomer's & Gen X and I have at least 20+ years of riding and buying left.  I see Price, Quality & Features as the main reason people aren't buying.  A couple of those reasons are responsible for myself and some friends for not buying in the last year alone!  The realization is it will survive.....but its never gonna be what it was.  The stock price is a CEO's & top management's report card, as I see it their not passing and putting another team member in charge isn't gonna help.

I agree, I just turned 57 and have many years of riding left as do lots of my friends.  For us the huge drop on quality is the biggest reason for not wanting to buy Harley.  This is closely followed by price increases with the included content dropping, pay more and get less.

I'm on my 7th new CVO since 2009.  Quality on the 19 is very poor at best.  I have had more front brake rotors replaced on this 19 than the other 6 bikes together under warranty.  In fact they are checking rotors again now, this will be thirds set in 20K miles that have warped.  Seat has been replaced due to wear, left side control module, fork legs, shifter levers, speedometer, saddle bag lid due to paint flacking off, and no maybe the BCM as head unit volume still does not work.

I have very few issues at all with my 09.  Same with my 12 Skunk, but after that each bike had more issues than the last.

Sad to say there several motorcycles out there that give you more for less money.  Cant speak to long term quality of them.
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mark

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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #13 on: March 11, 2020, 08:44:04 AM »

I'm at Daytona Bike Week and it was hard to find the display for Harley. Any farther down the track and they would be out in the  street.
I noticed that too...the HD tent was at the far end, which didn’t seem to be a premium spot.  Actually, they seems to have the worse spot at the speedway. 
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J.D.

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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #14 on: March 11, 2020, 06:49:48 PM »

Another 8-3/4% drop today to close at 23.07.

Almost attractive enough to buy.  Not quite.  I think 18 is my buy number.
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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #15 on: March 11, 2020, 08:52:31 PM »

Another 8-3/4% drop today to close at 23.07.

Almost attractive enough to buy.  Not quite.  I think 18 is my buy number.
Don't wait. Now is the time.
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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #16 on: March 12, 2020, 04:24:28 PM »

Another 8-3/4% drop today to close at 23.07.

Almost attractive enough to buy.  Not quite.  I think 18 is my buy number.
much better companies out there with better fundamentals than hog!! shop wise this a great time to buy sound companies at cheap prices. last time to buy at these prices was 2008.
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J.D.

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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #17 on: March 12, 2020, 04:32:04 PM »

We're close.  Another 12%+ drop today to close at 20 and some change.
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J.D.

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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #19 on: March 15, 2020, 05:34:13 PM »

There's blood in the water and still plenty to squeeze out.  Everyone saw what happened to Sears.
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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #20 on: March 15, 2020, 09:36:27 PM »

im keeping my bike till im done, one kid has one, a kid across the street has one. they are the future, there are just not as many of them.
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mark

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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #21 on: March 16, 2020, 09:40:59 AM »

There's blood in the water and still plenty to squeeze out.  Everyone saw what happened to Sears.
...and General Motors.
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J.D.

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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #22 on: March 16, 2020, 11:15:46 AM »

GM is in a much better position than HD, IMHO.

IMHO, the automaker "bankruptcies" of the prior recession were mainly about (breaking) pension deals.
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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #23 on: March 16, 2020, 04:06:04 PM »

We are heading into a recession for atleast 2 quarters. The DOW dropped 3000 points today. Its a blood bath. Whenever these keystone cops get on national TV and display their incompetence in dealing with this virus, it makes it even worse. I am getting so angry watching so many people lose 35% of their 401k's in 2 weeks.
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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #24 on: March 16, 2020, 04:25:50 PM »

GM is in a much better position than HD, IMHO.

IMHO, the automaker "bankruptcies" of the prior recession were mainly about (breaking) pension deals.
gm 104.57 b debt 20.48 b cash, book value 29.85  close today 21.00  / hog 7.52 b debt 471 m cash book value 11.99 per share close today 20.93 numbers are most recent quarter
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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #25 on: March 17, 2020, 06:29:50 AM »

We are heading into a recession for atleast 2 quarters. The DOW dropped 3000 points today. Its a blood bath. Whenever these keystone cops get on national TV and display their incompetence in dealing with this virus, it makes it even worse. I am getting so angry watching so many people lose 35% of their 401k's in 2 weeks.

Yea, believe me the market drops are killing most peoples retirement plans.  I lost more money yesterday than the average American earns in a year.  Since this started I lost several years of income in the market.

I know it will come back, but this mass hysteria is not good.  This will destroy some companies.  It will financially wreck many families, and it will hurt Harley very Badly.
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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #26 on: March 17, 2020, 12:57:14 PM »

Yea, believe me the market drops are killing most peoples retirement plans.  I lost more money yesterday than the average American earns in a year.  Since this started I lost several years of income in the market.

I know it will come back, but this mass hysteria is not good.  This will destroy some companies.  It will financially wreck many families, and it will hurt Harley very Badly.
I feel your post and align similarly.
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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #27 on: March 17, 2020, 05:43:08 PM »

 yes, many folks got caught and I am sure it hurt. unfortunately, for many they do not know we probably have another leg down to go.
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J.D.

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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #28 on: March 18, 2020, 02:20:41 PM »

HOG just a few ticks above 18 and I just can't pull the trigger.  Unfortunately I'm not yet convinced it's bottomed out.
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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #29 on: March 18, 2020, 02:33:42 PM »

HOG just a few ticks above 18 and I just can't pull the trigger.  Unfortunately I'm not yet convinced it's bottomed out.

It's not!
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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #30 on: March 19, 2020, 12:42:22 PM »

No matter what it gets down to ($11 maybe) I doubt it will ever be a money maker. 
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smkymtnboy

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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #31 on: March 19, 2020, 02:37:50 PM »

No matter what it gets down to ($11 maybe) I doubt it will ever be a money maker.
it may be someday. but, their are so many good companies at very cheap PEs that have very sound fundamentals.
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Re: HOG Drops 5.79% to Post-Recession Low
« Reply #32 on: March 20, 2020, 01:44:35 PM »

well,18 dollars per share is in the rear view mirror!! :-\
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