Topic: More sales trouble for Harley-Davidson (Read 22344 times)

amigo Jorge · « **on:** June 10, 2009, 12:25:21 PM »

More sales trouble for Harley-DavidsonPosted Jun 09 2009, 04:23 PM by Kim Peterson Rating: Filed under: Kim Peterson

Spring is the most important time of the year for Harley-Davidson (HOG). It sells about a third of its bikes in April, May and June, analysts say, as the weather warms up and bikers itch to hit the road.

After the horrible year Harley has had, I can only imagine the company was hopeful for a miracle this spring. That didn't happen. Analysts at UBS say retail sales at Harley plummeted 35% in April and May, according to Barron's.

And so Harley's problems continue. Americans still love their motorcycles, they just don't love brand new Harleys. Here are the problems the company faces now:

--The used motorcycle market does a brisk business.

--Harley buyers are getting older. Only 12% of buyers are under 35.

--Harley offered no-money-down financing to subprime buyers who either couldn't or wouldn't repay their loans. As a result, its financing arm is in trouble with delinquent loans and credit rating concerns.

--The company has cut back shipments to retailers in hopes of bringing down inventory. Harley also had to close plants, lay off employees and cut production this year.

And the share price? I thought it was in recovery, but the price has been sliding since the beginning of May. Last year at this time, shares were nearly $40. They plunged below $9 in March, bounced back above $20 in May, and these days are lingering in the $15 to $17 range.

Friday, Citigroup cut its rating on Harley to sell. Barron's thinks the stock may have topped out in May.

Brinks · « **Reply #1 on:** June 10, 2009, 12:48:53 PM »

Interesting, all of the dealers I have spoke to in the Chicago area have reported better sales than last year, in fact, most of their floors have quite a bit a space for more bikes. Maybe Kim Peterson rides a HONDA

ultrafxr · « **Reply #2 on:** June 10, 2009, 01:31:57 PM »

Yeah, I don't get it. My dealer says his sales are good. So there is some disconnect or he is just putting up a good front not wanting us to know how bad things are. Time will tell but the showrooms see less busy than in years past.

grc · « **Reply #3 on:** June 10, 2009, 02:24:40 PM »

I've only stopped in at three dealerships recently, but they all had more bikes sitting on the floor than I can remember in the past 15-20 years. And don't forget, many of these dealers have bikes still sitting in crates in the warehouse, in addition to what you see on the floor.

There are no doubt some areas of the country where the well heeled haven't felt the effects of the recession and they continue to buy overpriced toys. So it wouldn't surprise me to find some dealers doing pretty well, just like some auto dealers continue to do well. But the overall industries, bike and auto, continue to be in the dumper. Dealerships which have to rely on the average Joe are hurting, because even if Joe still has a job he may not feel like risking $20k-$30k until he knows he will still have that job next week. And unlike the wealthy dudes, Joe probably needs financing and that is still a big problem. Easy credit is dead, at least until this all blows over and everyone forgets how we arrived at the big recession in the first place.

Jerry

BillH · « **Reply #4 on:** June 10, 2009, 03:03:10 PM »

Talked to my sales guy, who is also a friend, and he said their sales were off by 30% in April and May. He has been their top salesman for years and now he is looking for a part time job. This is a large dealer in Austin.

Bill

JCZ · « **Reply #5 on:** June 10, 2009, 05:20:04 PM »

It's not looking to good here in Nor Cal, either. The four dealerships around the Sacramento area all have motorcycles out the door and no traffic going in the door.

It's not looking good. And the lines at the parts counters are gone, too.

charlie · « **Reply #6 on:** June 10, 2009, 06:11:37 PM »

Around here harleys are selling as well, that reporter must be a honda rider.

skreminegul07 · « **Reply #7 on:** June 12, 2009, 01:29:05 PM »

My daughter is in sales. They had a May that was better than last May. April was about the same. They just got sent another unexpected allotment.

JeffsHogPen · « **Reply #8 on:** June 27, 2009, 12:22:49 PM »

I spoke to a Salesman at Cajun H D. He said sales were a little down but he had more cash buys than he had before. Everything is down. so we all just have to make it through this down turn and get by. I took a 12% paycut in March. I did not like it but I still have a job.

Sierramadre · « **Reply #9 on:** June 27, 2009, 07:59:37 PM »

Harley doesn't know how to retail their products in a down market. They've had their way for the past decade without any real competition- basically selling every bike they could produce at full list price. Now the world has changed and Harley is still operating with the same old arrogance. No owner loyalty program. No incentives for first time buyers. No conquest program. No special financing. No discounts for repeat customers. Lousy customer service and inept salespeople. Just the same old 'if we build it, they will come' mentality. They better wake up soon or the game is going to be over.

SBB · « **Reply #10 on:** June 27, 2009, 08:49:32 PM »

Quote from: Sierramadre on June 27, 2009, 07:59:37 PM

Harley doesn't know how to retail their products in a down marketHarley has a great marketing department. IT'S A DOWN MARKET. Harley is up there with Coke, Nike and Budwiser in knowing how to market. How many people you seen with Coke, Nike or Budwiser tattoed on their arm or chest?. They've had their way for the past decade without any real competition-NO COMPETITION? What is a goldwing, a venture, a voyager or any of the Beemers? How about the Shadows or the Vulcan's? basically selling every bike they could produce at full list price. Now the world has changed and Harley is still operating with the same old arrogance. No owner loyalty program. No incentives for first time buyers. No conquest program. No special financing. No discounts for repeat customers. Lousy customer service and inept salespeople. Just the same old 'if we build it, they will come' mentality. They better wake up soon or the game is going to be over.

OK, after 106 years lets count the Motor Company dead.
They are a bunch of idiots that have been selling us crap for 106 years.

WAIT, in order to sell there has to be buyers.
If it's really that bad of a product then who is the real idiot?

The entire world is experiencing recession including Harley.
I'm even thinking of lowering the 01 SERG price to $72,500.00 for AJ.
We all must make sacrifices to get by.

JMHO

SBB

Rooster · « **Reply #11 on:** June 27, 2009, 10:47:09 PM »

Quote from: SBB on June 27, 2009, 08:49:32 PM

OK, after 106 years lets count the Motor Company dead.
They are a bunch of idiots that have been selling us crap for 106 years.

WAIT, in order to sell there has to be buyers.
If it's really that bad of a product then who is the real idiot?

The entire world is experiencing recession including Harley.
I'm even thinking of lowering the 01 SERG price to $72,500.00 for AJ.
We all must make sacrifices to get by.

JMHO

SBB
[/quote

FLSTFI Dave · « **Reply #12 on:** June 28, 2009, 09:36:48 AM »

Quote from: Sierramadre on June 27, 2009, 07:59:37 PM

Harley doesn't know how to retail their products in a down market. They've had their way for the past decade without any real competition- basically selling every bike they could produce at full list price. Now the world has changed and Harley is still operating with the same old arrogance. No owner loyalty program. No incentives for first time buyers. No conquest program. No special financing. No discounts for repeat customers. Lousy customer service and inept salespeople. Just the same old 'if we build it, they will come' mentality. They better wake up soon or the game is going to be over.

I guess you did not see the full MSRP for a 07 or new sportster on trade in for a new big twin? They ran that from Dec until the end of March. I thought it was great to get 500 more for my wifes 2007 883 Low than I paid for it new. Not to mention the good chunck of money they took off the 2009 FLSTC Heritage I traded for it for the wife. Seems to me that was showing lots of customer loyoatly, full MSRP for the trade, and below MSRP for the new 09.

I also got a very good deal on my 09 SERG, and 20% off all the accessories for it.

Two of the sales men I know had record sales months in both March and April. They were alloted 4 SERG for 09, but to date have sold six.

I do not think the problem is the MoCo. I feel it is in how some of the dealers chose to do business. I have four dealers (different owners) with in 75 miles of me. The one I do business with is not hurting and is doing very well. But they treated customers good even when business was great. I am thinking one of the other dealers will fail this year or next, they are not doing well. However they treated customers like crap when business was booming.

RedDevil · « **Reply #13 on:** June 28, 2009, 10:12:34 AM »

This is definitely a sign of the times. I was recently down in Ft. Lauderdale for a conference and I spend one free morning I had running around to the local dealers. Of the four dealers within 25 miles of my hotel, three were owned by Fat Bastard. I don't know what he's still selling his SE's for at Destination Daytona, but he had two SERGs at every dealer down there and they were asking $32K for them. Even the evil FB sees something?

Cvostu · « **Reply #14 on:** June 28, 2009, 11:38:12 AM »

I think I remember that he was asking 9k over MSRP for the CVO back in March at Bike Week. I did remind the sales guys that there is a recession going on. They just nodded their heads and replied "hey, I just work here." What's he thinking now I wonder.

hard10 · « **Reply #15 on:** June 28, 2009, 11:41:52 AM »

Quote from: cvostu on June 28, 2009, 11:38:12 AM

I think I remember that he was asking 9k over MSRP for the CVO back in March at Bike Week. I did remind the sales guys that there is a recession going on. They just nodded their heads and replied "hey, I just work here." What's he thining now I wonder.

2 orange SERG3's on the floor. Someone I know (from the site) offered the salesman $32k cash OTD and he said "no".

49445CVO · « **Reply #16 on:** June 28, 2009, 12:18:50 PM »

They should give Kyle a call at Hot Rod H-D in Muskegon,MI 231-727-8427. They have had an O/B there for over a month and just got in a Silver

dagbre · « **Reply #17 on:** June 28, 2009, 05:06:02 PM »

Its the same all over, but MoCo has done quite a lot to adapt, with great looking bikes in their dark custom line, which is more of a recesion look. A sober contrast to the easter eggs of the bonanza years behind us. CVO should take this signal soon, and modify the "screamin colors" policy.

Still, MoCo hasnt succeeded with their best bike so far, the xr 1200. Try it, folks! Its a great ride. If we can get rid of the awful 70s flattrack retro tank design that NOBODY wants, it might well be a great selling bike.

gg · « **Reply #18 on:** June 28, 2009, 07:17:19 PM »

Sierramadre, don't blame the MOCO for what dealers do. MOCO does NOT tell the dealers to sell their chit at MSRP or above. I am no MOCO defender , but lets put blame where it belongs.

bandit · « **Reply #19 on:** June 29, 2009, 03:40:26 AM »

I fully agree with dagbre. Had the xr 1200 for a weekend, absolutly great to ride, but change the tank-design and volume.
Have been riding a buell xb12 for a year and now have as a second bike the ulysess (for 3 years now), the xr 1200 is definitly
a big improvement.

bandit

harley56 · « **Reply #20 on:** June 29, 2009, 04:42:56 PM »

Quote from: fthngrg on June 28, 2009, 07:17:19 PM

Sierramadre, don't blame the MOCO for what dealers do. MOCO does NOT tell the dealers to sell their chit at MSRP or above. I am no MOCO defender , but lets put blame where it belongs.

Not the MOCO's fault for what the dealer's do - correct. Unfortunately many dealers have now built stores and associated overheads that cannot survive with current volumes and margins, including some really good dealers.

spydglide · « **Reply #21 on:** June 29, 2009, 05:08:51 PM »

Quote from: harley56 on June 29, 2009, 04:42:56 PM

Not the MOCO's fault for what the dealer's do - correct. Unfortunately many dealers have now built stores and associated overheads that cannot survive with current volumes and margins, including some really good dealers.

It's not good to get in right before the bubble bursts.

spyder

hard10 · « **Reply #22 on:** June 29, 2009, 09:24:21 PM »

Quote from: harley56 on June 29, 2009, 04:42:56 PM

Not the MOCO's fault for what the dealer's do - correct. Unfortunately many dealers have now built stores and associated overheads that cannot survive with current volumes and margins, including some really good dealers.

Quote from: spydglide on June 29, 2009, 05:08:51 PM

It's not good to get in right before the bubble bursts. spyder

Hind sight is 20/20 (Thank goodness!

)

SBB · « **Reply #23 on:** June 29, 2009, 09:32:54 PM »

Quote from: hard10 on June 29, 2009, 09:24:21 PM

Hind sight is 20/20 (Thank goodness! )

With that being said, why screw with the injuns when you can pick up the real thing at a firesale.

Just sayin,

Ahhhhhhhhhh, now your thinkin!

SBB

MUFFMAN · « **Reply #24 on:** June 30, 2009, 06:22:16 AM »

Can't see this coming year getting any better for the Mo Co. This late in the year the local dealer is still jammed with 09's including 2 CVO Ultras & 2 SE Road Glides.

Cvostu · « **Reply #25 on:** June 30, 2009, 07:27:59 PM »

you know that this is no "cheap" hobby, sport or whatever you would like to call it. People are so worried about having a job these days, that almost everything else has to wait or be passed by. They better start realizing this sooner because later will likely be too late. At this time of the year, these dealers should not be sitting on these massive inventories with the next model year about to come out in 2 months. I'm glad I don't have that pressure on me. But we all have enough of our own these days. Good luck to HD, they're gonna need it.

grc · « **Reply #26 on:** June 30, 2009, 08:11:29 PM »

Quote from: cvostu on June 30, 2009, 07:27:59 PM

you know that this is no "cheap" hobby, sport or whatever you would like to call it. People are so worried about having a job these days, that almost everything else has to wait or be passed by. They better start realizing this sooner because later will likely be too late. At this time of the year, these dealers should not be sitting on these massive inventories with the next model year about to come out in 2 months. I'm glad I don't have that pressure on me. But we all have enough of our own these days. Good luck to HD, they're gonna need it.

Yes, you would think there would be a lot more effort to move some of that iron sitting in the showroom and still sitting in crates in the dealer's warehouse. And it's not just '09 inventory, there are plenty of '08 bikes still unsold as well.

Motorcycles aren't even close to being a necessity, so in this economy and with all the uncertainty about the future, it makes perfect sense that sales are down. I'm totally amazed that the decline isn't a lot worse than what's been reported; must be a bunch of the rich guys from this site buying up several spare bikes that's kept the numbers from dropping like a rock. If you can afford it, having spares sitting around is a good idea when you ride a Harley.

I still expect to see a fire sale eventually. H-D and most of the dealers are trying their damnedest to keep from breaking their MSRP or higher pricing policies, but eventually the mortgage on that nice new building, and the interest on the floorplan loan for all those bikes, and the interest on the parts and accessory inventory's, and the payroll for all those lovely Motor Clothes girls, and the payroll for all those so-called technicians, and the payroll for the wife's deadbeat brother who supposedly manages parts and service, etc., all start to add up and get into some serious cash outlay. Even the ones who made serious cash over the past 15 years probably didn't keep it all in a mattress just waiting for this rainy day to come along. Odds are they spent a ton on high living, and lost a ton in the market like many of us mere mortals. And many are probably finding the same thing many consumers are finding, easy credit isn't so easy anymore.

Personally, I'm holding out for the BOGO deal. For those guys who don't have to go shopping with their wives (one of the drawbacks to retirement, btw), BOGO stands for "Buy One, Get One free".

Jerry

tony1968 · « **Reply #27 on:** June 30, 2009, 11:18:00 PM »

FROM THE HORSES MOUTH...

Details on First Quarter 2009 Results

Motorcycles and Related Products Segment - First Quarter Results
Revenue from Harley-Davidson motorcycles was $1.01 billion, a decrease of $2.7 million or 0.3 percent versus the same period last year. Shipments of Harley-Davidson motorcycles totaled 74,670 units, an increase of 2,802 units or 3.9 percent compared to last year's first quarter. Shipment guidance for the quarter was 74,000 to 78,000 Harley-Davidson motorcycles.

Revenue from Parts and Accessories (P&A), which consists of Genuine Motor Parts and Genuine Motor Accessories, totaled $169.8 million, a decrease of $12.2 million or 6.7 percent versus the year-ago quarter. Revenue from General Merchandise, which consists of MotorClothes apparel and collectibles, totaled $75.2 million, a decrease of $8.8 million or 10.5 percent from the year-ago quarter.

Gross margin for the first quarter of 2009 was 36.9 percent of revenue compared to 36.4 percent for the first quarter last year. Operating margin was 17.7 percent, compared to 20.0 percent in the first quarter of 2008. Operating margin was adversely impacted during the quarter by $34.9 million in restructuring costs.

Motorcycle Retail Sales Data
During the first quarter, worldwide retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles decreased 12.0 percent compared to the prior-year quarter. In the U.S., retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles decreased 9.7 percent from the year-ago period. In last year's first quarter, U.S. retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles decreased 12.8 percent compared to the prior year.

Industry-wide retail sales of heavyweight motorcycles in the U.S. declined 22.3 percent during the quarter.

In international markets, retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles decreased 17.2 percent during the first quarter of 2009 compared to the first quarter of 2008, reflecting the impact of the severe economic downturn in many markets. In last year's first quarter, international retail Harley-Davidson motorcycle sales grew 16.8 percent compared to the prior year. In Canada, first-quarter retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles decreased 30.4 percent on a retail unit volume decrease of 816 motorcycles; the Europe Region was down 17.4 percent on a decrease of 1,761 units; the Asia Pacific Region was down 7.2 percent on a decrease of 382 units; and the Latin America Region was down 26.3 percent on a decrease of 488 motorcycles.

MUFFMAN · « **Reply #28 on:** July 02, 2009, 04:50:39 AM »

In Canada, the HD stores are giving a Harley authorized $1,500.00 instore gift certificate for any new 09 purchased. Its a start anyway..

Cvostu · « **Reply #29 on:** July 06, 2009, 07:56:21 PM »

I'll drink to that one!!

MJZ · « **Reply #30 on:** July 07, 2009, 05:12:38 PM »

Hell, I've bought my 4th bike this year, 2 BMW's, 1 Triumph and a KTM and at this point I wouldn't spend a penny on a SE. After 3 SE's and spending a fortune on all of them after the initial buy, at 57, I would think I'm their target buyer. Damn have they ever screwed the pooch. But I still love to sit in the garage and look at my nana, just have no desire to ride it.

spydglide · « **Reply #31 on:** July 08, 2009, 12:06:32 AM »

Quote from: MJZ on July 07, 2009, 05:12:38 PM

Hell, I've bought my 4th bike this year, 2 BMW's, 1 Triumph and a KTM and at this point I wouldn't spend a penny on a SE. After 3 SE's and spending a fortune on all of them after the initial buy, at 57, I would think I'm their target buyer. Damn have they ever screwed the pooch. But I still love to sit in the garage and look at my nana, just have no desire to ride it.

Damn, I hope that they don't send you a satisfaction survey.

har! spyder

Twolanerider · « **Reply #32 on:** July 08, 2009, 12:13:19 AM »

Quote from: MJZ on July 07, 2009, 05:12:38 PM

Hell, I've bought my 4th bike this year, 2 BMW's, 1 Triumph and a KTM and at this point I wouldn't spend a penny on a SE. After 3 SE's and spending a fortune on all of them after the initial buy, at 57, I would think I'm their target buyer. Damn have they ever screwed the pooch. But I still love to sit in the garage and look at my nana, just have no desire to ride it.

Which is better to sit and look at Mark? The 'nana or the Springer?

bgregston · « **Reply #33 on:** July 08, 2009, 04:31:06 PM »

I needed my 20K service before the GTG in Oregon. I called at 4:00 in the afternoon and got service the next day.

Bret

grc · « **Reply #34 on:** July 08, 2009, 05:00:52 PM »

Quote from: bgregston on July 08, 2009, 04:31:06 PM

I needed my 20K service before the GTG in Oregon. I called at 4:00 in the afternoon and got service the next day.

Bret

Bret, does that mean your dealer really values you personally and therefore juggled the schedule to make sure to get you in right away, or does it mean they had so little work lined up that they had openings the next day for anyone who called?

I remember a few years back when the service departments stayed busy just uncrating and supposedly "prepping" the new bikes for the sales department, and the real service and warranty work required a long wait on a list (kind of like the waiting list for a new bike). Oh how the mighty have fallen (couldn't have happened to a more deserving bunch IMHO).

I really hope this little ~~depression~~ recession finally weeds out the worst of the "no customer service" dealers, and forces out most of the clueless and useless management at the MoCo as well.

Jerry

bgregston · « **Reply #35 on:** July 08, 2009, 05:22:32 PM »

Jerry, no doubt they had openings for anyone that called. It's like a ghost town in the store... usually 2 or 3 people max. I was in the store recently and stood there with 3 salesmen just talking about nothing for probably 20 minutes.

Bret

Harleydude001 · « **Reply #36 on:** July 15, 2009, 02:26:14 PM »

Funny how peoples perceptions can be. Just finished a 3200 mile motorcycle trip through the West and heard the same thing from each store. Bikes are available people want to buy BUT, the finance companies are not loaning the money. People with excellent credit are being turned down. In case you didn't know your credit rating now reflects a Risk factor which based on your industry can determine where you are. You can have excellent credit but work in an at Risk industry and be turned down. Oh and I just bought an 09 Screamin Eagle Road Glide and another new rider was picking up his bike the same day and two days before another guy picked up his new SERG. So is it as gloom as it sounds, I don't think so. Just my $.02 worth.

Ride to eat and eat to Ride

yort4041 · « **Reply #37 on:** July 15, 2009, 04:05:34 PM »

The shop here in New Orleans has a huge inventory and mostly new bikes. They really are only dealing with Harley's bank who had totally changed their approval criteria. But they seem to still want over MSRP for their inventory.

Glide-man · « **Reply #38 on:** July 15, 2009, 04:52:29 PM »

I just bought my SERG May 23rd. From Adventure Harley Davidson in Dover Ohio. This is my 3rd Harley and my first from them. They made the process a great experience. The Loan process couldn't have been easier. I was told that some people were buying these bikes with no money down.

I'm a blue collar worker living day to day. If you go to work and pay your bills, you :soapbox:can get a loan.

grc · « **Reply #39 on:** July 15, 2009, 05:33:46 PM »

Quote from: Harleydude001 on July 15, 2009, 02:26:14 PM

............................................Bikes are available people want to buy BUT, the finance companies are not loaning the money.

People with excellent credit are being turned down. In case you didn't know your credit rating now reflects a Risk factor which based on your industry can determine where you are. You can have excellent credit but work in an at Risk industry and be turned down. .............................................................

Yup, there's always people who want to buy. Wanting to buy, and being qualified to buy, now those two items aren't necessarily the same thing. Harley's credit arm is swimming (and sinking) in bad debt from handing out loans to anyone still breathing, sort of like the mortgage folks and the credit card folks. So I would fully expect financing to be more difficult, and I personally think that's the way it should have been all along. I'm tired of paying more to make up for those who don't pay.

I assume working for an American auto company would fall into that high risk occupation category, so I guess it's a good thing I retired before my credit rating could drop.

Now if only H-D would come out with something I would be willing to buy (still waiting for some quality and customer service).

Jerry

fourstar · « **Reply #40 on:** July 15, 2009, 11:49:51 PM »

Quote from: grc on July 15, 2009, 05:33:46 PM

I'm tired of paying more to make up for those who don't pay.

You're going to love nationalized health care!!!

hard10 · « **Reply #41 on:** July 16, 2009, 08:50:00 AM »

From today's WSJ:
" Harley-Davidson Inc.'s second-quarter earnings plunged 91% amid its planned decline in shipments as the motorcycle maker will cut 1,000 more jobs and slashed its forecast for shipments again.

The company said it would cut another 700 hourly production workers and 300 nonproduction, mostly salaried workers, as a result of the lowered shipment volume. It slashed its expectations for this year's shipments, saying it now expects to ship 212,000 to 228,000 motorcycles this year, compared to April's estimate of 264,000 to 273,000.

Harley Davidson had already cut 1,400 to 1,500 hourly jobs earlier this year. The company has about 9,300 workers.

The high-end motorcycle manufacturer, which for years couldn't make enough motorcycles to meet demand, has been curtailing production and cutting jobs during the downturn. The credit crunch wreaked havoc on its finance unit, its main source of financing for buyers. However, Harley said in May that it had secured the $1 billion it needs to fund the finance unit for the year. The company also has been working to diversify its customer base to include women and young riders." ...

hard10 · « **Reply #42 on:** July 16, 2009, 08:54:22 AM »

This was the last paragraph:
"It also said it was still considering what to do with its operations in York, Pa. Earlier this year it announced plans to consolidate paint and frame operations at the facilities into one plant, but it said Thursday it has since determined that the York operations aren't competitive or sustainable. It said it expects to make a decision on the status of the operations later this year."

strangebird · « **Reply #43 on:** July 16, 2009, 02:58:56 PM »

Quote from: Brinks on June 10, 2009, 12:48:53 PM

Interesting, all of the dealers I have spoke to in the Chicago area have reported better sales than last year, in fact, most of their floors have quite a bit a space for more bikes. Maybe Kim Peterson rides a HONDA
[/quoCHICAGO (Reuters) - Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG.N) and Polaris Industries Inc (PII.N) said on Thursday that cash- strapped consumers steered clear of their big, high-end motorcycles in the second quarter and warned demand would likely remain stalled for the rest of 2009.

Both companies said they were responding to the marked deterioration by making additional cuts to bike production. Harley-Davidson, which has already laid of about 1,500 workers, said it would cut another 1,000 jobs and accelerate some previously announced plant closures.

Harley's cuts were especially dramatic. The Milwaukee-based company said it would now ship between 212,000 and 228,000 of its namesake motorcycles to dealers and distributors worldwide in 2009, down 25 percent to 30 percent from 2008.

Ed Aaron, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, called Harley's latest production cuts "massive ... more than what either the buy- or sell-side was expecting" and wondered how Harley would be able to sustain its gross margins "given the inherent operating leverage in Harley's model."

But Goldman Sachs analyst Patrick Archambault said the cuts would translate into "a significant reduction in dealer inventory which will ultimately better position the company for 2010" -- an interpretation that helped send Harley's shares higher.

Not everyone was impressed. Standard & Poor's cut Harley to sell from hold, saying the results suggested "far worse selling conditions than expected" and that "economic pressures on consumer spending will depress results" through 2010.

The production cut announcements came as Harley and Polaris reported second-quarter earnings.

Harley's results disappointed analysts, pulled down by -- among other things -- $72.7 million credit loss provision at its captive finance arm.

The numbers from Polaris, which makes Victory brand bikes, topped expectations, thanks to stronger sales of its side-by- side all-terrain vehicles

But both companies said bikes sales were continuing to soften. Indeed, during the second quarter, industry-wide retail sales of the heavyweight motorcycles Harley and Polaris make tumbled 48 percent.

"Motorcycle demand was much weaker than expected a few months ago," said Deutsche Bank analyst Rod Lache.

The shares of Harley, which saw its market share grow last quarter, were up 8 percent at $18.88, while Polaris, which saw its already tiny market share fall during the period, were down about 5 percent at $31.89 in afternoon trading.

te]

hard10 · « **Reply #44 on:** July 16, 2009, 11:24:37 PM »

HOG broke $19 / share today. Go figure.

hogasm · « **Reply #45 on:** July 16, 2009, 11:42:59 PM »

They announced that they are not going to produce any more V-Rods and Sportsters for 2010. What they have produced now is it. They also announced that some 30 more dealerships will be closed and that some 30 more dealerships will be on no credit, pay as you go status.

Offered 28K for a 09SERG again today......no deal........they still have 5 on their floor

bbrown · « **Reply #46 on:** July 16, 2009, 11:50:54 PM »

Quote from: hard10 on July 16, 2009, 11:24:37 PM

HOG broke $19 / share today. Go figure.

I wonder where it is heading. Probably not $60 but the analyst say 25...i wonder?

hard10 · « **Reply #47 on:** July 16, 2009, 11:52:18 PM »

Quote from: bbrown on July 16, 2009, 11:50:54 PM

I wonder where it is heading. Probably not $60 but the analyst say 25...i wonder?

I have a "buy" in at $10. I really was expecting it to head south again. Shocked me.

bbrown · « **Reply #48 on:** July 16, 2009, 11:54:54 PM »

Me too IIf it drops to $15 again I think it is time to buy. Whish I would have bought at $9

grc · « **Reply #49 on:** July 24, 2009, 05:33:48 PM »

Just received the monthly flyer from the local dealership, and I'm guessing they have a few too many Sportster's, Dyna's, Softail's, and Buell's. No specials on the Touring models, though.

Calumet H-D, Munster, Indiana 219-934-6366

Jerry

jimp · « **Reply #50 on:** July 26, 2009, 09:12:20 AM »

The stock is currently in a short squeeze, don't be fooled by the price action.

hard10 · « **Reply #51 on:** July 26, 2009, 09:59:53 AM »

Quote from: jimp on July 26, 2009, 09:12:20 AM

The stock in currently in a short squeeze, don't be fooled by the price action.

You were reading my mind. I was wondering how the stock will react to the new offerings for the MoCo on Monday? While in today's day and age, the product offering has little to do with actual stock price, it will be interesting to watch. I'm not sure they did enough to the lineup to increase sales in a declining market.

jimp · « **Reply #52 on:** July 26, 2009, 10:25:43 AM »

Also don't forget the head market manipulators (GS) up graded the stock.

guppytrash · « **Reply #53 on:** July 26, 2009, 11:08:15 AM »

Just some observations and comments after reading most of this thread.
In 1999 I walked into several HD dealers in VA and was not given the time of day by any salesman. When I could get one to talk to me they laughed at me for having the ignorance to want to choose a specific color for a specific model. All were willing to take 1500 or 2000 down on a deposit for something that may arrive in six months to a year. (color of there choice)
I never really got over that.
I told them I have been riding motorcycles since I was 5 and will be riding them tell I am dead, so maybe I will come back when it is not so hip and fashionable to be on an HD. Or maybe I won't come back.

I like to call the new HD mega stores McHarley dealerships...to me they all look the same and have lost the character behind the original brand.
I think HD mandated dealerships to be a minimum square footage...maybe someone knows if that is a fact or a rumor.

I was sitting on an airliner a couple days ago and was watching the people boarding the plane. It seemed about 1 out of 4 people had a HD t-shirt on.
I was going from Chicago to Pittsburgh and to my knowledge there was no specific event to warrant this.

I don't really know where I am headed with this other than you would think any company that had a run like HD has had in the past should be in pretty good shape to weather a downturn.

hard10 · « **Reply #54 on:** July 26, 2009, 11:51:49 AM »

Quote from: guppytrash on July 26, 2009, 11:08:15 AM

Just some observations and comments after reading most of this thread.
In 1999 I walked into several HD dealers in VA and was not given the time of day by any salesman. When I could get one to talk to me they laughed at me for having the ignorance to want to choose a specific color for a specific model. All were willing to take 1500 or 2000 down on a deposit for something that may arrive in six months to a year. (color of there choice)
I never really got over that.
I told them I have been riding motorcycles since I was 5 and will be riding them tell I am dead, so maybe I will come back when it is not so hip and fashionable to be on an HD. Or maybe I won't come back.

I like to call the new HD mega stores McHarley dealerships...to me they all look the same and have lost the character behind the original brand.
I think HD mandated dealerships to be a minimum square footage...maybe someone knows if that is a fact or a rumor.

I was sitting on an airliner a couple days ago and was watching the people boarding the plane. It seemed about 1 out of 4 people had a HD t-shirt on.
I was going from Chicago to Pittsburgh and to my knowledge there was no specific event to warrant this.

I don't really know where I am headed with this other than you would think any company that had a run like HD has had in the past should be in pretty good shape to weather a downturn.

That, my friend, is priceless!

jimp · « **Reply #55 on:** July 26, 2009, 12:46:47 PM »

Sad to say but I think management hauled away the cash over the years, if not how do you explain the need to borrow money at 15%?

Is this their own style of subprime toxic assets listed on the balance sheet?

http://investor.harley-davidson.com/balance/balance_2009.cfm

Quote

March 29, 2009
Finance receivables held for sale 2,086,920
Finance receivables held for investment, net 1,677,355

chicagobulldog · « **Reply #56 on:** July 26, 2009, 10:55:12 PM »

HD is cutting signficant production for 2010 and I think they are hoping the scarcity of bikes will push buyers off the sidelines. I highly doubt it is going to work.

I am predicting the economy is going to go through a deflation cycle over the next few years. HD is headed for two or three years of severe difficulty and chapter 11 is not out of the realm of possibility. You heard it here first.

PS: They have made TONS of money for years. There philosphy has been don't fix what is not broken. The have only tweaked things for years. The result is an out of date product line and not much new on the drawing board. It gets old spending 20-35K for a new motorcycle which is the same as the last one, the only difference being a new paint job and a few minor changes. HD hasn't been successful pulling in young buyers. In my view, they may be in serious trouble if they don't get their act together.

jimp · « **Reply #57 on:** July 27, 2009, 08:06:44 AM »

I can agree with this.

Quote

chapter 11 is not out of the realm of possibility

guppytrash · « **Reply #58 on:** July 28, 2009, 12:07:24 AM »

Quote from: jimp on July 26, 2009, 12:46:47 PM

Sad to say but I think management hauled away the cash over the years, if not how do you explain the need to borrow money at 15%?

Most likely you are correct.
Sad.
Does anyone else think there should be a "hunting season" for CEO's.
I mean don't get me wrong...there should be rules. Like they make more than $10million a year and the company they run has lost money every year they are there. Then maybe there should be a season for them.

That could be a whole new thread...probably a very funny one.

grc · « **Reply #59 on:** July 28, 2009, 08:58:13 AM »

Quote from: guppytrash on July 28, 2009, 12:07:24 AM

Most likely you are correct.
Sad.
Does anyone else think there should be a "hunting season" for CEO's.
I mean don't get me wrong...there should be rules. Like they make more than $10million a year and the company they run has lost money every year they are there. Then maybe there should be a season for them.

That could be a whole new thread...probably a very funny one.

It would be nice to think that executive compensation would actually be tied to real performance, but as we've all seen over the past decade or two it appears that just the opposite is true. Play games that inflate the numbers the bonuses are based on, at the long term expense of the company and the stockholders, and walk away with hundreds of millions while the company tanks and the stockholders are left with pennies on the dollar. It's such a common theme that I have to wonder if they aren't teaching this as part of the curriculum at the infamous Harvard Business School. You know, the home of "Greed is Good".

The sad part is that public companies have boards of directors that are supposed to control this sort of thing. Unfortunately, with no effective regulations most of these boards have become nothing more than incestuous enablers for the crooks. Look at who makes up the boards, and you will find a lot of folks who are on the gravy train at their own company. We have lots of folks looking out for the big guys, and no one looking out for the stockholders, the customers, and the long term viability of the company.

Jerry

jimp · « **Reply #60 on:** July 28, 2009, 09:21:21 AM »

This should really help their borrowing power. Also I question the amount of bad loans and REPO's on HDFS balance sheet, marked to make believe.

Quote

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said Monday it downgraded Harley-Davidson Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!hog/quotes/nls/hog (HOG 21.80, +0.04, +0.18%) because of lower-than-expected sales declines. S&P lowered Harley-Davidson's corporate credit rating to BBB from BBB+. The outlook is stable.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-downgrades-harley-davidson-on-sales-slide-2009-07-27?siteid=yhoof2

spydglide · « **Reply #61 on:** July 28, 2009, 09:36:32 AM »

Quote from: grc on July 28, 2009, 08:58:13 AM

It would be nice to think that executive compensation would actually be tied to real performance, but as we've all seen over the past decade or two it appears that just the opposite is true. Play games that inflate the numbers the bonuses are based on, at the long term expense of the company and the stockholders, and walk away with hundreds of millions while the company tanks and the stockholders are left with pennies on the dollar. It's such a common theme that I have to wonder if they aren't teaching this as part of the curriculum at the infamous Harvard Business School. You know, the home of "Greed is Good".

The sad part is that public companies have boards of directors that are supposed to control this sort of thing. Unfortunately, with no effective regulations most of these boards have become nothing more than incestuous enablers for the crooks. Look at who makes up the boards, and you will find a lot of folks who are on the gravy train at their own company. We have lots of folks looking out for the big guys, and no one looking out for the stockholders, the customers, and the long term viability of the company.

Jerry

It is sad, Jerry. And I keep getting sucked into investing my $$$ as I want to be part of this great free market system with the end result of all hope dashed.

spyder

Ghost Rider · « **Reply #62 on:** July 29, 2009, 09:31:22 AM »

Quote from: egultrac on July 29, 2009, 01:41:45 AM

Stopped into Calgary Harley Davisdon today and they still have several new 2008's sitting on the showroom floor.

Really, several 2008's. Wow, how many 2009's do they have?

Hoist! · « **Reply #63 on:** July 29, 2009, 09:35:10 AM »

Quote from: Ghost Rider on July 29, 2009, 09:31:22 AM

Really, several 2008's. Wow, how many 2009's do they have?

They got '08's layin around here too Travis! Some still have '07's! These stubborn dealers around here would rather hold out for their $$$ before dropping their prices! Their $$$, their floorplan, their inventory! I guess they're savin em for museums! FTD!!!

Hoist!

Ghost Rider · « **Reply #64 on:** July 29, 2009, 09:43:29 AM »

Quote from: Hoist! on July 29, 2009, 09:35:10 AM

They got '08's layin around here too Travis! Some still have '07's! These stubborn dealers around here would rather hold out for their $$$ before dropping their prices! Their $$$, their floorplan, their inventory! I guess they're savin em for museums! FTD!!!

Hoist!

I don't get it. Why would they rather pay the overhead (taxes, storage, etc) instead of moving the inventory. These dealers can not have that low a business acumen, could they?

smkymtnboy · « **Reply #65 on:** July 29, 2009, 10:07:58 AM »

just sayin!! as a young man walked into my first Harley dealership. Gosh was it cold in that place. Still remeber really really well. Son if you want one of these machines pay your 1000.00 dollar deposit and get in line. Color you will take whatever color comes in you can,t pick. Try one! we got guys waiting just to see one. this may not be something you want to consider. He was right 13 years later here we are. I now have two at what one costs. Don,t know who said but it is true. what comes around goes around. Maybe in the heyday dealers could have been a little more humble. I do love the machines and hope some folks are learning from their mistakes. I hope to buy another HD. somebodys gonna build bikes and someone is going to sell them I sure hope they say Harley Davidson on them.

grc · « **Reply #66 on:** August 03, 2009, 03:33:42 PM »

Well, here's the latest flyer from my local dealership. Now they list discounts on the Touring models as well, and even on the 2009 CVO's. Wasn't sure I'd ever see that, but I'm glad to see at least some dealers have finally gotten a clue that sticking to MSRP or above isn't a brilliant idea in the current market.

Jerry

skreminegul07 · « **Reply #67 on:** August 03, 2009, 07:13:51 PM »

Quote from: grc on August 03, 2009, 03:33:42 PM

Well, here's the latest flyer from my local dealership. Now they list discounts on the Touring models as well, and even on the 2009 CVO's. Wasn't sure I'd ever see that, but I'm glad to see at least some dealers have finally gotten a clue that sticking to MSRP or above isn't a brilliant idea in the current market.

Jerry

Gerry,
My daughter is a Harley salesperson. We have these discussions all the time. I showed her an ad like that. It is against HD policy to advertise below MSRP, which they are not actually doing in that ad. Some dealers will give gift cards to lower the price also. I do remember that back in the MSRP +++ days, dealers would install all the acessories you wanted for free.

spydglide · « **Reply #68 on:** August 03, 2009, 07:23:24 PM »

Quote from: skreminegul07 on August 03, 2009, 07:13:51 PM

Gerry,
My daughter is a Harley salesperson. We have these discussions all the time. I showed her an ad like that. It is against HD policy to advertise below MSRP, which they are not actually doing in that ad. Some dealers will give gift cards to lower the price also. I do remember that back in the MSRP +++ days, dealers would install all the acessories you wanted for free.

Good Lord, which dealers?

This crowd would bankrupt 'em.

har! spyder

Fired00d · « **Reply #69 on:** August 03, 2009, 07:26:51 PM »

Quote from: spydglide on August 03, 2009, 07:23:24 PM

Good Lord, which dealers? This crowd would bankrupt 'em. har! spyder

Now would we do that??

Ride Safe,
Fired00d

SBB · « **Reply #70 on:** August 03, 2009, 07:54:01 PM »

Quote from: grc on August 03, 2009, 03:33:42 PM

Well, here's the latest flyer from my local dealership. Now they list discounts on the Touring models as well, and even on the 2009 CVO's. Wasn't sure I'd ever see that, but I'm glad to see at least some dealers have finally gotten a clue that sticking to MSRP or above isn't a brilliant idea in the current market.

Jerry

GUYS

Read between his lines.
Jerry is looking at new bikes.
WhooHoo, get em Jerry!

SBB

Fired00d · « **Reply #71 on:** August 03, 2009, 07:59:15 PM »

Quote from: SBB on August 03, 2009, 07:54:01 PM

GUYS

Read between his lines.
Jerry is looking at new bikes.
WhooHoo, get em Jerry!

SBB

That's one bet I'm not taking.... no way, no how.

Especially something new from the MoCo.

Ride Safe,
Fired00d

grc · « **Reply #72 on:** August 03, 2009, 09:14:46 PM »

Quote from: SBB on August 03, 2009, 07:54:01 PM

GUYS

Read between his lines.
Jerry is looking at new bikes.
WhooHoo, get em Jerry!

SBB

Sorry Chip, no new bike for me. Still waiting for H-D to get serious about quality and customer service, or for BMW to locate a dealer one heck of a lot closer to where I live.

Besides, after paying for momma's new car she just ordered, I don't think I can afford a new bike. Don't forget, I'm retired and living on a fixed income these days. Guess I'll just have to keep fixin' up the SEEG.

Jerry

Hog Head · « **Reply #73 on:** August 04, 2009, 07:46:34 AM »

UPDATE - Harley not dead...Heading in right direction...

chicagobulldog · « **Reply #74 on:** August 16, 2009, 11:06:29 PM »

If only stock price were a reflection of company health. We all know stock price and the status the company many times have nothing to do with each other. Heck GM stock rallied after it filed bankruptcy! I still say HD has very troubled waters ahead. Think about it, the RV business got hammered, the boating business is in bankruptcy, Honda is moving their motorcyle manufacturing back to Japan......

ice6900 · « **Reply #75 on:** August 17, 2009, 02:11:42 PM »

hog members in uk suffer 10% price hike in parts in accessories, the answer from one hog chapter is to stop buying parts and accessories for 12months period: Lets see what Moco do about it, for sucks sake we are in the biggest recession of this century and u dont fight your way out of by ripping off your values customers, with the dollar exchange rate uk members should get 50% reduction in the over inflated prices.

FLSTFI Dave · « **Reply #76 on:** September 17, 2009, 02:44:27 PM »

Quote from: grc on August 03, 2009, 03:33:42 PM

Well, here's the latest flyer from my local dealership. Now they list discounts on the Touring models as well, and even on the 2009 CVO's. Wasn't sure I'd ever see that, but I'm glad to see at least some dealers have finally gotten a clue that sticking to MSRP or above isn't a brilliant idea in the current market.

Jerry

I agree. It is easy to see in my area, I have four dealers with in 75 miles of my house. Three are having troubles selling all their 09's. The 4th, ran out of allotted 09's picked up 120 other 09's from other dealers to tide them over till the 10's came out.

This dealer also sold all his alloted SERGS with in four days of the announcment of the bike, and then has sold 4 more he got from other dealers. He has also as of Aug 15th sold all his alloted 2010 SESG's.

I fully believe he does so much better is becuase of how he treats the customer, the fact back in 07 he was dealing on bikes.

Diamondback · « **Reply #77 on:** September 17, 2009, 02:50:05 PM »

JCZ · « **Reply #78 on:** September 22, 2009, 09:58:55 AM »

I'd have thought the recession would have increased customer service at the dealerships. I know that there's one here in Sacramento that has closed one of his dealerships and customer service at the other has been on the down hill slide for the past couple of years.

sportygordy · « **Reply #79 on:** September 22, 2009, 10:51:29 AM »

Quote from: JCZ on September 22, 2009, 09:58:55 AM

I'd have thought the recession would have increased customer service at the dealerships. I know that there's one here in Sacramento that has closed one of his dealerships and customer service at the other has been on the down hill slide for the past couple of years.

Tell me about it... I was there a few weekends ago ready to spend some good money on engine parts. One guy at the parts counter, me second in line waiting for 15 Min's or so and the 'lone' parts guy was more interested swapping stories with another guy, not spending a dime' about their trip to Strugis. I finally turned to walk out, then the parts guy say's 'can i help you dude' I just ignored him walked out and doubt I'll ever step foot in the place again.

Rode 35 miles north to Yuba Harley and when i got there the place was packed, some ride function going on. I thought 'oh boy' I'll be here all day. They had two guys manning the parts counter, i was like number 6 in line. I had my parts in my hand and out the door within 10 mins, All the while each parts guy managed to carry on 'bull chit' stories with their customers. Not bad ' 'hey''''

NVTHIS · « **Reply #80 on:** September 22, 2009, 04:15:08 PM »

Quote from: sportygordy on September 22, 2009, 10:51:29 AM

Tell me about it... I was there a few weekends ago ready to spend some good money on engine parts. One guy at the parts counter, me second in line waiting for 15 Min's or so and the 'lone' parts guy was more interested swapping stories with another guy, not spending a dime' about their trip to Strugis. I finally turned to walk out, then the parts guy say's 'can i help you dude' I just ignored him walked out and doubt I'll ever step foot in the place again. Rode 35 miles north to Yuba Harley and when i got there the place was packed, some ride function going on. I thought 'oh boy' I'll be here all day. They had two guys manning the parts counter, i was like number 6 in line. I had my parts in my hand and out the door within 10 mins, All the while each parts guy managed to carry on 'bull chit' stories with their customers. Not bad ' 'hey''''

Sportygordy, can I ask you a question. The dealership that you drove to for 35 miles to get your parts do they sell at or above MSRP. I just wondering if riders a getting tired of above MSRP and if the poor service is related. Poor customer service comes from poor management and I;m thinking those dealership are above MSRP. Or maybe I wrong.

moscooter · « **Reply #81 on:** September 22, 2009, 04:35:11 PM »

The general mgr at my local dealership, told me that HD was cutting way back on production to get (supply/demand) back where they would like to be. They didn't like some of the extreme undercutting of MSRP and discounting practices that undermined their established "price points" $:-\$

Meantime, he indicated much fewer CVOs as well as other models would be built. The reduction and/or elimination of the production at the York facility would be transferred to a (right to work)........read "non-union" state most likely. (I totally support that move as I CANNOT stand unions).

sportygordy · « **Reply #82 on:** September 22, 2009, 11:53:10 PM »

Quote from: NVTHIS on September 22, 2009, 04:15:08 PM

Sportygordy, can I ask you a question. The dealership that you drove to for 35 miles to get your parts do they sell at or above MSRP. I just wondering if riders a getting tired of above MSRP and if the poor service is related. Poor customer service comes from poor management and I;m thinking those dealership are above MSRP. Or maybe I wrong.

The folks at Yuba (Guideras Harley Davidson) defiantly sell at MSRP to customers within their zip code areas. I would be willing to bet they would sell MSRP to any zip code now days but i can't guarantee this. Sacramento Harley sale the popular models above MSRP. They also add doodads to most bikes as an excuse to jack-up price. Rocklin Harley sticks with MSRP but they do the doodad game on some bikes, they also markup outside their zip code. The only reason I went into Sacramento for parts was because the friend i was helping lives within a few miles of the place. I don't think i can ever remember having a good experience visiting Sacramento. Rocklin and Yuba treat customers really well and it may be because these dealerships are both family owned (brothers) and the Guideras just seem to be good folks,, with the exception of the jerk (spoiled son) that drag races NHRA for Rocklin.

JCZ · « **Reply #83 on:** September 23, 2009, 09:54:49 AM »

Quote from: NVTHIS on September 22, 2009, 04:15:08 PM

Sportygordy, can I ask you a question. The dealership that you drove to for 35 miles to get your parts do they sell at or above MSRP. I just wondering if riders a getting tired of above MSRP and if the poor service is related. Poor customer service comes from poor management and I;m thinking those dealership are above MSRP. Or maybe I wrong.

The dealership that Sportygordy and I are referring to has sold at MSRP for twenty five years, that I know of. I've bought many bikes there over the years. It's had three different owners in that time frame. It's this last one that has shaken everthing up and customer service in the toilet.

ice6900 · « **Reply #84 on:** September 27, 2009, 03:21:45 AM »

CVO`s just dont sell well in Switzerland, its open house this weekend @ the dealerships, all have cvo bikes on the shop foor. At one dealer there was 6 CVO`s lined up at the main entrance with a large sign

"eiskalt preise offers on all o8 09 CVO bikes" SERG SEUC fat bobs
i havent seen any springers yet but am visiting another 2 shops 2day......

Update after todays 2dealer run around i found two 09 springers yellow n blue a used 07 yellow and more used cvo ultra and a silver 103ci fat boy.........

moscooter · « **Reply #85 on:** September 27, 2009, 10:56:29 AM »

"eiskalt preise offers"

ice6900 · « **Reply #86 on:** September 27, 2009, 12:49:47 PM »

Quote from: moscooter on September 27, 2009, 10:56:29 AM

"eiskalt preise offers"

literal translation means "ice cold price offers" which in english would read "red hot discounts"

Author Topic: More sales trouble for Harley-Davidson (Read 22344 times)

charlie

hogasm