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[hogasm]

They announced that they are not going to produce any more V-Rods and Sportsters for 2010. What they have produced now is it. They also announced that some 30 more dealerships will be closed and that some 30 more dealerships will be on  no credit, pay as you go status.

Offered 28K for a 09SERG again today......no deal........they still have 5 on their floor

[bbrown]

HOG broke $19 / share today. Go figure.

I wonder where it is heading.  Probably not $60 but the analyst say 25...i wonder?

[hard10]

I wonder where it is heading.  Probably not $60 but the analyst say 25...i wonder?

I have a "buy" in at $10. I really was expecting it to head south again. Shocked me.

[bbrown]

Me too  IIf it drops to $15 again I think it is time to buy.  Whish I would have bought at $9

[grc]

Just received the monthly flyer from the local dealership, and I'm guessing they have a few too many Sportster's, Dyna's, Softail's, and Buell's.  No specials on the Touring models, though.

Calumet H-D, Munster, Indiana  219-934-6366


Jerry

[jimp]

The stock is currently in a short squeeze, don't be fooled by the price action.

[hard10]

The stock in currently in a short squeeze, don't be fooled by the price action.

You were reading my mind. I was wondering how the stock will react to the new offerings for the MoCo on Monday? While in today's day and age, the product offering has little to do with actual stock price, it will be interesting to watch. I'm not sure they did enough to the lineup to increase sales in a declining market.

[jimp]

Also don't forget the head market manipulators (GS) up graded the stock.

[guppytrash]

Just some observations and comments after reading most of this thread.
In 1999 I walked into several HD dealers in VA and was not given the time of day by any salesman.  When I could get one to talk to me they laughed at me for having the ignorance to want to choose a specific color for a specific model.  All were willing to take 1500 or 2000 down on a deposit for something that may arrive in six months to a year.  (color of there choice)  
I never really got over that.  
I told them I have been riding motorcycles since I was 5 and will be riding them tell I am dead, so maybe I will come back when it is not so hip and fashionable to be on an HD.  Or maybe I won't come back.

I like to call the new HD mega stores McHarley dealerships...to me they all look the same and have lost the character behind the original brand.
I think HD mandated dealerships to be a minimum square footage...maybe someone knows if that is a fact or a rumor.  

I was sitting on an airliner a couple days ago and was watching the people boarding the plane.  It seemed about 1 out of 4 people had a HD t-shirt on.
I was going from Chicago to Pittsburgh and to my knowledge there was no specific event to warrant this.

I don't really know where I am headed with this other than you would think any company that had a run like HD has had in the past should be in pretty good shape to weather a downturn.



 


 
 

[hard10]

Just some observations and comments after reading most of this thread.
In 1999 I walked into several HD dealers in VA and was not given the time of day by any salesman.  When I could get one to talk to me they laughed at me for having the ignorance to want to choose a specific color for a specific model.  All were willing to take 1500 or 2000 down on a deposit for something that may arrive in six months to a year.  (color of there choice)  
I never really got over that.  
I told them I have been riding motorcycles since I was 5 and will be riding them tell I am dead, so maybe I will come back when it is not so hip and fashionable to be on an HD.  Or maybe I won't come back.

I like to call the new HD mega stores McHarley dealerships...to me they all look the same and have lost the character behind the original brand.
I think HD mandated dealerships to be a minimum square footage...maybe someone knows if that is a fact or a rumor.  

I was sitting on an airliner a couple days ago and was watching the people boarding the plane.  It seemed about 1 out of 4 people had a HD t-shirt on.
I was going from Chicago to Pittsburgh and to my knowledge there was no specific event to warrant this.

I don't really know where I am headed with this other than you would think any company that had a run like HD has had in the past should be in pretty good shape to weather a downturn.

That, my friend, is priceless!

[jimp]

Sad to say but I think management hauled away the cash over the years, if not how do you explain the need to borrow money at 15%?



Is this their own style of subprime toxic assets listed on the balance sheet?

http://investor.harley-davidson.com/balance/balance_2009.cfm

March 29, 2009
Finance receivables held for sale 2,086,920     
 Finance receivables held for investment, net 1,677,355 

[chicagobulldog]

HD is cutting signficant production for 2010 and I think they are hoping the scarcity of bikes will push buyers off the sidelines. I highly doubt it is going to work.

I am predicting the economy is going to go through a deflation cycle over the next few years. HD is headed for two or three years of severe difficulty and chapter 11 is not out of the realm of possibility. You heard it here first.

PS: They have made TONS of money for years. There philosphy has been don't fix what is not broken. The have only tweaked things for years. The result is an out of date product line and not much new on the drawing board. It gets old spending 20-35K for a new motorcycle which is the same as the last one, the only difference being a new paint job and a few minor changes. HD hasn't been successful pulling in young buyers. In my view, they may be in serious trouble if they don't get their act together.

[jimp]

I can agree with this.

chapter 11 is not out of the realm of possibility

[guppytrash]

Sad to say but I think management hauled away the cash over the years, if not how do you explain the need to borrow money at 15%?

Most likely you are correct.
Sad.
Does anyone else think there should be a "hunting season" for CEO's.
I mean don't get me wrong...there should be rules.  Like they make more than $10million a year and the company they run has lost money every year they are there.  Then maybe there should be a season for them.

That could be a whole new thread...probably a very funny one.
 



 

[grc]

Most likely you are correct.
Sad.
Does anyone else think there should be a "hunting season" for CEO's.
I mean don't get me wrong...there should be rules.  Like they make more than $10million a year and the company they run has lost money every year they are there.  Then maybe there should be a season for them.

That could be a whole new thread...probably a very funny one.
 

It would be nice to think that executive compensation would actually be tied to real performance, but as we've all seen over the past decade or two it appears that just the opposite is true.  Play games that inflate the numbers the bonuses are based on, at the long term expense of the company and the stockholders,  and walk away with hundreds of millions while the company tanks and the stockholders are left with pennies on the dollar.  It's such a common theme that I have to wonder if they aren't teaching this as part of the curriculum at the infamous Harvard Business School.  You know, the home of "Greed is Good".

The sad part is that public companies have boards of directors that are supposed to control this sort of thing.  Unfortunately, with no effective regulations most of these boards have become nothing more than incestuous enablers for the crooks.  Look at who makes up the boards, and you will find a lot of folks who are on the gravy train at their own company.  We have lots of folks looking out for the big guys, and no one looking out for the stockholders, the customers,  and the long term viability of the company. 

Jerry