Whole lot of supposition and WAG methodology in this thread. Just reading the threads on this one site concerning the 139 tooth belt breakage, it certainly seems like there is a problem. However, since the only change is the front sprocket and the belt, and the front sprocket is the same size as the one on the stock Tri-Glide that doesn't have belt breakage problems, I think it's reasonable to hypothesize that the root cause is the quality or design of the belt. Just because someone makes a belt with the correct tooth pitch and width to fit the sprockets doesn't necessarily mean they made it with the other characteristics required to handle the torque loads of an extremely heavy motorcycle with a big V-Twin engine. It also doesn't guarantee that their manufacturing quality is worth a chit.
While Gates Polychain doesn't make a 139 tooth 1" belt directly for Harley, they do make a 139 tooth 1" belt that is constructed out of the same poly coated Kevlar as the OEM Harley belts. I'd suggest someone contact Gates and ask them point blank if that belt has the same strength characteristics as the OEM belts, and do they recommend it for use on a late model Harley. If it is and they do, the problem may be easily solved by not buying the Falcon belt and buying the Gates instead.
For those who are too gun shy to try the 30 tooth change, you can always look into changing the primary ratio with an aftermarket clutch gear. I forget the name of the company that offers that option, but I'm sure someone around here will have a link to them.
As for the two mpg difference, as the old car advertisements were quick to point out, "your results may vary". I've actually seen similar ratio changes improve mpg, it all depends on how you ride and the torque characteristics of the engine. Anyway, two mpg sure wouldn't keep me from doing something that makes the bike more responsive and fun to ride.
JMHO - Jerry