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[J-Carr]

Just saw this on the msn.com website...

http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/topstocks/?fpn=can%20harley%20davidson%20handle%20the%20downturn

I wonder.  If we shut up the press for one month, what would the stock market and economy look like.  Yes HD stock has tanked and yes so has the DOW.  But just as it was artificially inflated in the past, it is now artificialy deflated.  If everyone would stop yelling fire in the crowed theater, I think we'd all get out alive.

Ride Safe,
J-Carr

[Hugh Janis]

I'm buying everything I can now.  Makes no sense to bail when it's low.

[MIKEYTEE]

I'm waitting on $ 8.00 share.
By order in.
Mike
 

[LRebel]

I'm buying everything I can now.  Makes no sense to bail when it's low.

Ditto That!  I am dumping all the $$$ I can into the market right now.... It's On Sale!

May take 5 - 10 years, but those that can invest now will be winners if they have the time to wait for the market

[Jbbrown73]

Yes, I believe we can think the media for a good part of this economic down turn.  And the speculators who drove oil to $140 pushed those that are living on the edge right off.  I blame the fuel price more than the sub prime housing issue for bringing the economy to it's knees. 

However, with that said, the entire country as a whole, individuals, state local and federal governments and business has to learn to live within it's means.  This includes myself who has lived within my means, but I sure haven't saved for a rainy day like I should've.  Myself, I am re-evaluating my entire financial situation.  As part of that I bought a new SERK!!!   But for the record, I'm getting rid of a few other big ticket items. 

[screaminchickensrule]

Buy, buy, buy, can't stay bad forever...

[skreminegul07]

$11.90

[Kodiak]

Hold on to them dollars. Bury them in the back yard. It's going to get worse before it gets better.

[Jock]

There are definitely some opportunities out there for the long haul...the big questions are when to invest and when to get out...

[LRebel]

There are definitely some opportunities out there for the long haul...the big questions are when to invest and when to get out...

Hard to say.  I've heard speculation about where the bottom will be.  A few days ago someone was saying 8k.... someone else said 7k    Closed at 7552 today -- who would have thought it back when it hit 14k

I kinda think we will see the bottom (where ever that is) around the end of the year and it may hang there for a while.  Probably be a lot of folks selling off before the end of the year in an effort to avoid likely tax changes.

May be optimistic, but I hope we will see it start to recover some around the end of the first quarter.  May be a long time before it hits 10k again, but if history means anything, every ten year period has had growth.  If you measure from October last year (when it was at 14k), going to have to see some much better times before we get to 2017.

Anyway, I'm staying in and planning on moving some more in next month.

[hard10]

$11.90

I can't find the thread but someone was buying at $10. Y'all know I like a good sale, and this market is definitely a time to buy. I don't know about HD specifically but with the DOW at 7500,  there are some deals to be had.

[sadunbar]

Maybe everyone should run out today and buy a new HD motorcycle and HD wardrobe and HD accessories to save the company!!   






If you all unanimously agree to this, please let me know first so I can go buy more stock!!!   

[screwup]

been watching 4 stock closely, garmin, home depot, harley and wells fargo.
wells fargo has the least percentage of bad housing loans of all the finance companies we work with in property preservation side of the business, garmin has sgood overseas sales, home depot as most people seem be fixing up their houses  rather than buying a new one, and of course harley, yes population is getting older however, when it turns more funds will be available to spend.  Just another cycle of up and downs.

[Cigarmike]

Hold on to them dollars. Bury them in the back yard. It's going to get worse before it gets better.

a good reason to start stocking up on ammo too

[grandpadoc]

We had a Harley dealer close here in SoCal this week. That means our HOG chapter is disbanded. The reason is "they lost there lease".  Doc

[screaminchickensrule]

Hold on to them dollars. Bury them in the back yard. It's going to get worse before it gets better.

That is why it will get worse!!!

[hard10]

been watching 4 stock closely, garmin, home depot, harley and wells fargo.
wells fargo has the least percentage of bad housing loans of all the finance companies we work with in property preservation side of the business, garmin has sgood overseas sales, home depot as most people seem be fixing up their houses  rather than buying a new one, and of course harley, yes population is getting older however, when it turns more funds will be available to spend.  Just another cycle of up and downs.

Being from Olathe, Ks, I can see why you'd be interested in Garmin. I truly believe that they have the BEST customer  service representatives in any industry. If you ever have the need to call them, they are always knowledgeable and efficient.  They sell a fantastic product and back it up. It is companies like this that are going to succeed in business.

[RedBone]

We had a Harley dealer close here in SoCal this week. That means our HOG chapter is disbanded. The reason is "they lost there lease".  Doc

What dealers???

[Hoist!]

HeHe!!! They can't be doing too bad! I just got my dividend check today for my 1 share! 24 cents, 96 cents for the year!!! I love making them mail me a check worth less than the postage!!! And I never cash em either!!!

Hoist!

[SPIDERMAN]

H-D survived AMF, nuff said !

B B

[spydglide]

H-D survived AMF, nuff said !

B B

some say that AMF's $$ put into R&D was the only reason they're still a viable company.  spyder

[Hoist!]

some say that AMF's $$ put into R&D was the only reason they're still a viable company.  spyder

Well all that postage on my 24 cent dividend checks has to be KILLING them now!!!

Hoist!

[spydglide]

Well all that postage on my 24 cent dividend checks has to be KILLING them now!!!

Hoist!

Do ya have the stock certificate framed in your 'stable'?    har!  spyder

[Hoist!]

Do ya have the stock certificate framed in your 'stable'?    har!  spyder

HeHe!!! Yep! Binx got it for my BDay last year! With a lil plaque on it that reads "May your stock soar and your Harley roar"!!!

Hoist!

[spydglide]

HeHe!!! Yep! Binx got it for my BDay last year! With a lil plaque on it that reads "May your stock soar and your Harley roar"!!!

Hoist!

     spyder

[MontyB]

A wise man once told me that the job of the press is to sell newspapers.  If the media was in the elevator business, elevators would only
have TWO buttons -

One would say "SOAR" and
the other would say "PLUNGE".

How would that make you feel about taking an elevator ride??

A good perpective to keep in mind.
cheers

[hdhog1]

  I think I'd offer to trade my elevator stock to Hoist for the HD stock.

  When the gas goes back up, all the cagers are going to have to buy bikes.

  I believe Spyders right AMF did HD much more good than harm.

[SPIDERMAN]

some say that AMF's $$ put into R&D was the only reason they're still a viable company.  spyder

I've heard this line of crap a 1,000 times and the AMF PR guy that managed to start this urban myth should be in the spin doctor's hall of fame. All the R&D money in the world didn't get people to buy crappy motorcycles that leaked oil like sieves and didn't run for chit AND had lousy paint. Only customer loyalty did that. What AMF's investment in machine tool technology did was give Vaugh Beals and the rest of the buyout team something to begin to build solid motorcycles with AFTER AMF went the way of the rabbit down Alice's hole.

 End of sermon

B B

[Hoist!]

I've heard this line of crap a 1,000 times and the AMF PR guy that managed to start this urban myth should be in the spin doctor's hall of fame. All the R&D money in the world didn't get people to buy crappy motorcycles that leaked oil like sieves and didn't run for chit AND had lousy paint. Only customer loyalty did that. What AMF's investment in machine tool technology did was give Vaugh Beals and the rest of the buyout team something to begin to build solid motorcycles with AFTER AMF went the way of the rabbit down Alice's hole.

 End of sermon

B B

The management team was at least smart enough to develop the Evo with Porche (which is what really saved the Co) and sandbag it til they got the Co back from AMF! So there endeth the lesson! (Hub)

Hoist!

[Gone Fishin']

We had a Harley dealer close here in SoCal this week. That means our HOG chapter is disbanded. The reason is "they lost there lease".  Doc

We've seen that happening in Europe. HOG allowed the chapters to continue without a dealer, as a "free" chapter.

Ride safely,
Louis

[ice6900]

We've seen that happening in Europe. HOG allowed the chapters to continue without a dealer, as a "free" chapter.

Ride safely,
Louis

in switzerland a few chapters have carried on with the "national hog rep" acting as the sponsoring dealer.

[grandpadoc]

What dealers???

San Juan Capistrano closed Dec 31st with a 40% off sale, but probably just tee-shirts. The HOG chapter at that location was disbanded, but there are other chapters in the area to pick them up.  Doc

[SPIDERMAN]

San Juan Capistrano closed Dec 31st with a 40% off sale, but probably just tee-shirts. The HOG chapter at that location was disbanded, but there are other chapters in the area to pick them up.  Doc

They closed and only marked stuff down 40% ? 

Unfreakinbelieveable. Abusing their customers to the bitter end.

They should have sold everything at cost plus 10% to clear out the inventory.

The dealerships that act as regional parts depots for H-D sell at cost plus 10%.

B B

[Gone Fishin']

They closed and only marked stuff down 40% ? 

Unfreakinbelieveable. Abusing their customers to the bitter end.

They should have sold everything at cost plus 10% to clear out the inventory.

The dealerships that act as regional parts depots for H-D sell at cost plus 10%.

B B

Don't you think 40% discount is almost the same as cost +10%?

[hard10]

They closed and only marked stuff down 40% ? 

Unfreakinbelieveable. Abusing their customers to the bitter end.

They should have sold everything at cost plus 10% to clear out the inventory.

The dealerships that act as regional parts depots for H-D sell at cost plus 10%.

B B

Don't you think some of the stock was sent back to the manufacturer for credit on outstanding balances?

[Admiral]

They closed and only marked stuff down 40% ? 
Unfreakinbelieveable. Abusing their customers to the bitter end.
They should have sold everything at cost plus 10% to clear out the inventory.
The dealerships that act as regional parts depots for H-D sell at cost plus 10%.
B B

Hell they should have sold it all at cost if the're closing.

[ice6900]

business is business, closing down or not u gotta pay your outstanding commitments, I am not defending the stealer but thinkin of the folks now unemployed!

[hard10]

I just read this story out of Michigan :

"Outside of Flint, one project going up is the Vehicle City Harley-Davidson store on Austin Parkway at I-75 in Flint Township. That store is expected to open in April, replacing the Cummings Harley-Davidson store on Davison Road in Burton."

[grandpadoc]

Within a half hour drive there are four other Harley Dealers in the area and it was just too much. The location of this dealership was really bad and not worth going out of the way for in my opinion. The location should be a destination and this was more of a satelite site buried in a industrial complex. I think they knew they screwed up before it opened.
I don't know if anyone else has heard of it but they had a points program for HOG discounts. You had to buy at retail and earn points depending on the amount of purchase and when it got to the $25 mark you could redeem them. Your points expired at the end of the year if not used.    ...or go down the freeway a little ways and get your HOG discount without the hassle. Doc

[JCZ]

It was probably the strangest location of any dealership that I've been to across this nation.  I was in the area on business and I could see it from the freeway but it's certainly not easy to find once you take the off ramp.....even after calling them.

They did have a very nice logo on their t-shirts thow.

[harley56]

Don't you think 40% discount is almost the same as cost +10%?

You are correct, in fact on many items it's less than cost.

[skreminegul07]

The items had to get rid of to another dealer or back to the MOCO would be the dealer branded stuff.

[SPIDERMAN]

Don't you think some of the stock was sent back to the manufacturer for credit on outstanding balances?

Absolutely AJ which is why I said cost PLUS 10% and not cost. I don't begrudge anyone making a buck even when they're going out of business, but with one last hurrah, you'd think they'd have done everything they could to make a buck. 10% of something beats 100% of nothing if you're closing up shop.

B B

[Admiral]

Dealers are starting to deal to stay afloat.

[hard10]

This just came in from smallcapinvestor.com:

"Looking at sector activity, motorcycle manufacturers, aluminum firms, coal companies, gold stocks, metal and mining firms, semiconductors, building products and hotels were among the worst performers today. Major aluminum firm Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA) said it  would slash 13,500 jobs and reduce output, which sparked an 8% slide in Alcoa’s stock and rippled throughout the mining sector. Gold prices took a hit today, which also triggered sales in gold shares."

[49445CVO]

Just saw this on the msn.com website...

http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/topstocks/?fpn=can%20harley%20davidson%20handle%20the%20downturn

I wonder.  If we shut up the press for one month, what would the stock market and economy look like.  Yes HD stock has tanked and yes so has the DOW.  But just as it was artificially inflated in the past, it is now artificialy deflated.  If everyone would stop yelling fire in the crowed theater, I think we'd all get out alive.

Ride Safe,
J-Carr

I second this

[Capo]

I second this

Can I get an Amen!

[Gone Fishin']

Can I get an Amen!

Guys, this is just wishful thinking. I agree that the press is like a pest most of times, but in this case nothing would change of it is not (right or wrong) reported. The ability of Harley getting financing for their financial services is dependent on the banks ability to raise that money from other banks (or the government). How this is done, will impact severely how Harley can refinance and therefore finance new bike acquisitions. At this time, with Harley's credit rating just cut down a bit, this is getting more and more difficult. If this gets difficult the interest Harley has to pay goes up. If that interest goes up, it should impact the interest Harley can offer to new buyers. If this interest increases, financing gets more expense, hence fewer bikes will be sold. This is pretty simple. Now if Harley would subsidize (and they already do to some extent) the financing, their bottom line is hurt. As a result their profit is adversely impacted, and that may result in a lowering of their credit rating. The cycle starts again.

Ride safely,
Louis

[Capo]

Guys, this is just wishful thinking. I agree that the press is like a pest most of times, but in this case nothing would change of it is not (right or wrong) reported. The ability of Harley getting financing for their financial services is dependent on the banks ability to raise that money from other banks (or the government). How this is done, will impact severely how Harley can refinance and therefore finance new bike acquisitions. At this time, with Harley's credit rating just cut down a bit, this is getting more and more difficult. If this gets difficult the interest Harley has to pay goes up. If that interest goes up, it should impact the interest Harley can offer to new buyers. If this interest increases, financing gets more expense, hence fewer bikes will be sold. This is pretty simple. Now if Harley would subsidize (and they already do to some extent) the financing, their bottom line is hurt. As a result their profit is adversely impacted, and that may result in a lowering of their credit rating. The cycle starts again.

Ride safely,
Louis

Louis of course you are correct. My point is that the "Fourth Estate" could expend more energy on the positive by way of using the few there are currently to begin to turn the ship. IMO the negatives become self fullfilling and that which we resist will persist. Think about the War on Drugs! How's that working for you? Terror sells news and we need the power of the media to sell the turn around!