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[Fatboy]

 FWIW.........I used to work for a company who is a sub-contractor for the York Plant. An old friend still there was told they have a surplus of about 10,000 bikes they are waiting to ship. Normal production is about 1000 per day so when the strike started they had about a two week supply. Coupled with the high dealer inventories it may be a month or so before the MOCO starts getting seriously concerned. Additionally he mentioned a factory owned by another company right across the street that went out on strike and the company closed it down........hmmm    This could get interesting....

[Hoist!]

I don't know how true this is. I was told on Saturday that they're setting up to build Softails on KC for the strike and that there's a 3 month backlog of Touring bikes. If that's the case, it sounds like HD is playing hardball on this one. Could be a long strike from what I'm hearing! Hoist!

[Twolanerider]

I don't know how true this is. I was told on Saturday that they're setting up to build Softails on KC for the strike and that there's a 3 month backlog of Touring bikes. If that's the case, it sounds like HD is playing hardball on this one. Could be a long strike from what I'm hearing! Hoist!

That would be a herculean undertaking.  Moving all the tooling that is at York to stamp fenders and other parts; there is a lot of manufacturing there as well as the final assembly.  Nothing is impossible of course.  But that would be a feat worth watching if it were intended to be done in a near term time frame.

The KC plant is pretty well maxed out in space used too.  One would have to wonder, if such a thing really were a consideration, whether Softail production would then temporarily supplant or replace Sportsters?

[Hoist!]

Who knows? If the tooling is "Flexible Manufacturing" then it's a lot of programming which they can copy from the York programs. I really don't know how feasible this is, but I heard they had it all planned in advance. I'm sure there are as many rumors as facts out there, designed to panic either the Union or Management, to get it settled. Time will tell, I guess! Hoist!

[SBB]

I'm with Twolane on this one.
Just glad my garage is full and I'm not wanting an 07.
Those monochromatic  bikes are looking better and better.

But I have to feel bad for all those waiting on new ones.
We all have been there and the strike doesn't help!

[Twolanerider]

I'm with Twolane on this one.
Just glad my garage is full and I'm not wanting an 07.
Those monochromatic  bikes are looking better and better.

But I have to feel bad for all those waiting on new ones.
We all have been there and the strike doesn't help!

Definitely man, most definitely.  Separate from any considerations of the impact on company or employees those people that had bikes ordered have to be curled up in a fetal postion right now. At least for awhile there will be stock at dealerships that people can walk in and buy if they are so inclined.  It's a good bet that any possible or potential negotiations on price or free services are out the window (at least for awhile). But there will be inventory to be purchased.

Bikes specially ordered are going to be the real killer though.  CVOs or firefighter models or Shriner's models (for example); those guys are just stuck.  If Harley moves to ramp up production a bit after the strike ends you know it will quite rightly put primary production ahead of specialty production too.  So even though firefighter bikes and those other specialty models are produced on the regular assembly line and would almost certainly be added back in to the normal production mix it is easy to envision CVO producton being suspended for awhile.  Those folks that have SERKs and SEUCs and the Springers already better count your blessings; because your belated brethren might be waiting a long time.  They could potentially not get any more 07 CVOs at all.

[Hoist!]

Definitely man, most definitely.  Separate from any considerations of the impact on company or employees those people that had bikes ordered have to be curled up in a fetal postion right now. At least for awhile there will be stock at dealerships that people can walk in and buy if they are so inclined.  It's a good bet that any possible or potential negotiations on price or free services are out the window (at least for awhile). But there will be inventory to be purchased.

Bikes specially ordered are going to be the real killer though.  CVOs or firefighter models or Shriner's models (for example); those guys are just stuck.  If Harley moves to ramp up production a bit after the strike ends you know it will quite rightly put primary production ahead of specialty production too.  So even though firefighter bikes and those other specialty models are produced on the regular assembly line and would almost certainly be added back in to the normal production mix it is easy to envision CVO production being suspended for awhile. Those folks that have SERKs and SEUCs and the Springers already better count your blessings because your belated brethren might be waiting a long time. They could potentially not get any more 07 CVOs at all.

Believe me, I started counting them as soon as the strike was announced. That was just a week after I received mine! I hope everyone else waiting gets theirs too! Hoist!

[FR8TRN]

FWIW.........I used to work for a company who is a sub-contractor for the York Plant. An old friend still there was told they have a surplus of about 10,000 bikes they are waiting to ship. Normal production is about 1000 per day so when the strike started they had about a two week supply. Coupled with the high dealer inventories it may be a month or so before the MOCO starts getting seriously concerned. Additionally he mentioned a factory owned by another company right across the street that went out on strike and the company closed it down........hmmm    This could get interesting....

Yeah that was CAT, not exactly a rinky dink company either....you'd think the guys on the picket line would realize that.

[ultrafxr]

Yeah that was CAT, not exactly a rinky dink company either....you'd think the guys on the picket line would realize that.

Can anyone remember Air Traffic Controllers ? ? ?   Sometimes you just don't know how good you've got it until you don't have it.  Or as my old granny would say, you don't miss your water 'til the well runs dry.

[Twolanerider]

Yeah that was CAT, not exactly a rinky dink company either....you'd think the guys on the picket line would realize that.

One important difference there is that Caterpillar (or GM or many other large manufacturing companies) actually have alternative and in many case redundant production sites.  While Harley is certainly a big company it really doesn't have a '"spare" York facility laying around that could even relativly quickly be spooled up to replace all that is done there.

[Twolanerider]

Can anyone remember Air Traffic Controllers ? ? ?   Sometimes you just don't know how good you've got it until you don't have it.  Or as my old granny would say, you don't miss your water 'til the well runs dry.

And one important difference there is that PATCO members were legally obligated not to strike.  They did so anyway.  Then they made the tactical mistake of doing so relatively early in the presidency of someone that had won a solid electoral win and was wanting and waiting for an opportunity to show his bones.  Hell, they were even warned.

[SPIDERMAN]

I talked to two different owners over the weekend Both said the strike would give them a chance to sell down their inventory. (both claimed to have nearly two months of sales either already set up on the floor or in a warehouse) Remember last year we talked about excess inventory all over the country and some dealers actually offering ( gasp) below MSRP. If these two owners represented anything of a cross section, then dealers won't be pressuring the MoCo to settle for a couple months. This made me think, the past couple of weeks I had noticed that my dealer had packed his showroom with new bikes as had the other dealership I'm speaking about here. Anyone else notice a lot more bikes on their dealer's floor before the strike started ?

B B

[ccr]

... This made me think, the past couple of weeks I had noticed that my dealer had packed his showroom with new bikes as had the other dealership I'm speaking about here. Anyone else notice a lot more bikes on their dealer's floor before the strike started ?...

Now that you mention it, I had attributed the increase of bikes on the floors of the local HD shops to be caused by a slowdown in sales due to time of year.............. things that make you go mmmmmmmmmmmm! 

[Midnight Rider]

I talked to two different owners over the weekend Both said the strike would give them a chance to sell down their inventory. (both claimed to have nearly two months of sales either already set up on the floor or in a warehouse) Remember last year we talked about excess inventory all over the country and some dealers actually offering ( gasp) below MSRP. If these two owners represented anything of a cross section, then dealers won't be pressuring the MoCo to settle for a couple months. This made me think, the past couple of weeks I had noticed that my dealer had packed his showroom with new bikes as had the other dealership I'm speaking about here. Anyone else notice a lot more bikes on their dealer's floor before the strike started ?

B B

Both dealers here, owned by the same guy, have the floor FULL of bikes.  They even have four CVO's between them...a Dyna, Springer, Red SEUC, and a new Melon leftover from late last year.  They also have a bunch in crates in the warehouse.  They're probably set through March, then they'll be running short of certain models.  If this things runs through April or May, prices could be all over the board, and I don't see them ever catching up on the CVO production if it lasts that long.

[ultrafxr]

And one important difference there is that PATCO members were legally obligated not to strike.  They did so anyway.  Then they made the tactical mistake of doing so relatively early in the presidency of someone that had won a solid electoral win and was wanting and waiting for an opportunity to show his bones.  Hell, they were even warned.

That is true.  Just saying that they thought they had the power and made what I would call a strategic vs tactical mistake in pushing too hard.  Not the same situation, agreed, but sometimes we all get too puffed up and believe our own hype until we get taken down a notch.  Well maybe I'm the only one that's ever done that.