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[KentuckyHarleyDude]

Cutting production is a great thing for dealers since they will be able to keep prices high. I hope it is not used as an excuse to raise the "Fair market adjustments" to the bikes and drive the prices even higher since they will be "even more rare and limited" and the strike may be the thing the MOCO needed to put a positive spin on by saying we planned to slow production.
Lower production numbers is great if they actually use the time available to do more quality control and product testing.  8-)
Or how about creating a system like car dealers and some bike companies where you can sit down at a computer at the dealers and custom build your bike exactly the way you want it and not have a stockpile of parts at home and pay more labor to have the new parts installed? Then parts inventory at the factory could be determined by the advance orders.
Some of us waited 6 months or more under the fast production levels I would hate to see how long it takes to get a CVO with slower production after the strike.

VA in all honesty I am not sure what will and will not happen at this point as to how prices might change but I can tell you as long as the new bikes bring a premium price so will your personal bikes ...one is tied to the other ...

Bubba

[djkak]

For What its Worth

I just returned from the Orlando dealers meeting and thought I might share a little of what was said... due to U.S. Dealer complaints according to the MoCo they realize that they have over produced CVO's AND regular inverntory bikes from 2003 thru 2007...they made a verbal commentment to every dealer at the show that the numbers of production will be trimmed back significantly and would be in numbers of around the pre 03 production volume for the U.S. they will however be sending a lot of bikes over seas as the market in Australia and Korea are booming...this is what we were told so take it for what its worth ...Dude

I recall a couple of years ago, HD announced a production cutback of somewhere around 3%; (10,000 ish machines). The stock analysts and other “people in the know” forecast major doom and gloom for HD as a result of the announcement. I believe that there was some significant legal action taken by a group of shareholders that resulted from the announced cutback.

I can’t help but wonder if something may have been lost or miss-communicated in the inventory or production piece of a presentation. This newsflash from Orlando doesn’t seem to support the information available in the public domain. It is my sense that if HD was making a baseless public claim of this magnitude, that in itself would be significant financial news; time will tell.

djkak

[Twolanerider]

I recall a couple of years ago, HD announced a production cutback of somewhere around 3%; (10,000 ish machines). The stock analysts and other “people in the know” forecast major doom and gloom for HD as a result of the announcement. I believe that there was some significant legal action taken by a group of shareholders that resulted from the announced cutback.

I can’t help but wonder if something may have been lost or miss-communicated in the inventory or production piece of a presentation. This newsflash from Orlando doesn’t seem to support the information available in the public domain. It is my sense that if HD was making a baseless public claim of this magnitude, that in itself would be significant financial news; time will tell.

djkak

Hard to believe news like that would not quickly make the wires.  Just did a quick search of the various common general and financial new outlets and wires and didn't find a thing involving the words "Harley production cutback" that wasn't related to the 2005 era story.  So if it was made "public" a few days ago it's still flying well under the radar.

[RJ749]

As long as the Euro is strong a well connected dealer indicates what KHD says, bikes go to Europe and especially the Nightster.

[RedDevil]

As long as the Euro is strong a well connected dealer indicates what KHD says, bikes go to Europe and especially the Nightster.

I'm sure the Europeans won't mind seeing a few more HOGs on the sales floor.  Also Austrailia and China may benefit from this too.  I hope HD doesn't open a factory in China though.  Almost all of their clothes is made in China now, I don't think I could handle seeing stamped in the down tube of my ride "Made in China".   :-?
Cheers [smiley=xyxthumbs.gif],
Red

[DCFIREMANN]

My point exactly! [smiley=xyxthumbs.gif]

On this great site no matter what kind of supply someone has, if it's over priced then members of this site will help you find what your looking for!
Now that's "The American Way".
And sometimes even the overpriced dealers reduce their price when members of this site call B/S on B/S! That's the power of this site.

[highlight]Bubba keep up the good work and keep us informed on the strike![/highlight]
 [smiley=xyxthumbs.gif]

It was in the news again this morning. THE STRIKE IS ON! At least at the York Final Assembly Plant. Nothing was said about The Kansas Assembly Plant.

Be Safe

THE DAWG

[napalm]

I travel a lot for business purposes in the North East, Dealers in geneal have a lot of bikes in stock and on the floor.  CVO Dynas, Road Kings & Springers are available pretty much every where.  Dealers with light stock on the floor usually have a wharehouse full out back!

The big boom that HD experinced sarting mainly with 2003 has topped off, many folks bought bikes, accessories, clothing, etc. and are off the market for a while.  I personally am spending much less now on HD stuff than previous years.  Many times I visit a HD store and come out empty handed.

It's going to be interesting for HD in the near future, overseas markets may carry the ball for awhile....

napalm

[WFP]

If I have never been to that particularstore, I come out with at least 2 T-shirts!    That's good for almost $100 these days when you talk long sleeve custom logo and one of the fancy women's version...

/Bill

I travel a lot for business purposes in the North East, Dealers in geneal have a lot of bikes in stock and on the floor.  CVO Dynas, Road Kings & Springers are available pretty much every where.  Dealers with light stock on the floor usually have a wharehouse full out back!

The big boom that HD experinced sarting mainly with 2003 has topped off, many folks bought bikes, accessories, clothing, etc. and are off the market for a while.  I personally am spending much less now on HD stuff than previous years.  Many times I visit a HD store and come out empty handed.

It's going to be interesting for HD in the near future, overseas markets may carry the ball for awhile....

napalm

[harleyteam]

CNN news is saying Harley shut down production at the York ass. plant today.

[ccr]

...I just returned from the Orlando dealers meeting and thought I might share a little of what was said... ...Dude

KYHD, Thank you so much for giving us the right from the horses mouth news.  Great info.  Love your impression of the new sportster model.  

[djkak]

In doing my part to help Naitram burn-in his new equipment, I am going to take another whack at this one. I stayed after school and googled H-D’s SEC filings in order to help clarify the scope of this issue. It is important to consider that the SEC regulates and requires public companies to disclose meaningful financial and other information to the public.

My pushback is based on H-D’s recent SEC filing (2006 Q4 and full year) The reference to pre-2003 production levels relative to current levels look like this: According to the SEC report, 2002 domestic (HD only) Motorcycles shipped were 212,833; 2006 was 273,212. The difference between ’02 and ’06 is 60,379 machines (22% +).

If the Wall Street Analysts and Investors dropped their suckers in the sand with a 3% reduction in ‘05, imagine their reaction to something over 22%. Call me silly, but I’m thinking that the Iraq war would look like playground fight at the neighborhood grade-school compared to investor reaction to a -22% domestic growth forecast from H-D.

According to the SEC report, International markets experienced substantial growth in 2006; making up approximately 22% of H-D’s worldwide Motorcycle sales. In order to lower Domestic production to pre-2003 levels while maintaining 2006 worldwide levels in 2007, the entire International market would have to grow almost 80%. If you factor in a modest 2% worldwide growth for ‘07, we are looking at an expansion of the International markets of almost 89%.

djkak

[rubaga]

interesting stat.  Thanks for the analysis.

Generally analysts love growth of sales in units and monetory terms.

[SPIDERMAN]

Noticed the 110 motor is now offered in crate motor form in the midyear update to the catalogue my parts guy showed me. Not sure if I'd have dropped a complete motor in LD since I would have still had to spend money on the intake, exhaust and SERT but it's a given that whenever you do something to your motorcycle to level the playing field , a month later the playing field changes.

B B

[ace4059]

I'm sure the Europeans won't mind seeing a few more HOGs on the sales floor.  Also Austrailia and China may benefit from this too.  I hope HD doesn't open a factory in China though.  Almost all of their clothes is made in China now, I don't think I could handle seeing stamped in the down tube of my ride "Made in China".   Cheers

Check the sticker on your brake rotors on your new Jester!!!  It was the first thing I removed from mine.

[woody]

Thanks for the information. I just saw the new Sporster at my local dealer last night. You are right , nice looking bike, very clean and sleek looking, would be fun bike to ride.