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[RJ749]

According to the SEC report, International markets experienced substantial growth in 2006; making up approximately 22% of H-D’s worldwide Motorcycle sales. In order to lower Domestic production to pre-2003 levels while maintaining 2006 worldwide levels in 2007, the entire International market would have to grow almost 80%. If you factor in a modest 2% worldwide growth for ‘07, we are looking at an expansion of the International markets of almost 89%.
djkak

IMHO that growth would be mostly China.  They are eating up european and American imports.

[harley56]

I was at the same meeting in Orlando.  Yes, they realize domestic dealers have too many motorcycles.  And yes, they talked about how well overseas markets are doing, showing some impressive percentage gains vs last year.  This then lead to letting us know that there would be an increase in overseas shipments as a percentage of the total and a corresponding reduction in domestic shipments.  They are also firmly committed to the strategy that a Harley-Davidson can never become a commodity, as in the auto industry and they realize dealers need to make money on their bike sales.  (For what it's worth, the vast majority of dealers would lose money if bike sales were not a significant profit center.)  However, they never stated they have built too many motorcycles, or that they would be going back to 2003, or earlier production levels.  At least, not to the dealer network as an assembled group.

[greglyon]

I was at the same meeting in Orlando.  Yes, they realize domestic dealers have too many motorcycles.  And yes, they talked about how well overseas markets are doing, showing some impressive percentage gains vs last year.  This then lead to letting us know that there would be an increase in overseas shipments as a percentage of the total and a corresponding reduction in domestic shipments.  They are also firmly committed to the strategy that a Harley-Davidson can never become a commodity, as in the auto industry and they realize dealers need to make money on their bike sales.  (For what it's worth, the vast majority of dealers would lose money if bike sales were not a significant profit center.)  However, they never stated they have built too many motorcycles, or that they would be going back to 2003, or earlier production levels.  At least, not to the dealer network as an assembled group.

Did you hear anything about a one year moratorium on new dealerships in the US?

[jeffj]

I was at the same meeting in Orlando.  Yes, they realize domestic dealers have too many motorcycles.  And yes, they talked about how well overseas markets are doing, showing some impressive percentage gains vs last year.  This then lead to letting us know that there would be an increase in overseas shipments as a percentage of the total and a corresponding reduction in domestic shipments.  They are also firmly committed to the strategy that a Harley-Davidson can never become a commodity, as in the auto industry and they realize dealers need to make money on their bike sales.  (For what it's worth, the vast majority of dealers would lose money if bike sales were not a significant profit center.)  However, they never stated they have built too many motorcycles, or that they would be going back to 2003, or earlier production levels.  At least, not to the dealer network as an assembled group.

Interesting, thanks for the info and welcome to our site

jeffj

[DavidB]

Check the sticker on your brake rotors on your new Jester!!!  It was the first thing I removed from mine.

If broken down you would not believe the parts on a Harley that are made in other countries.
It is,a world economy motorcycle.

[Bagger]

That Nightster 1200 is an awesome looking machine.  I've never owned a Sporty, but that Nightster looks like it would be a great second bike.  The price isn't to bad either.  I've never seen a Sporty that looks that good.

[harley56]

Did you hear anything about a one year moratorium on new dealerships in the US?

Yes, from the main stage at the general session they did say that there is a moratorium on putting in any new dealerships.

[DavidB]

Yes, from the main stage at the general session they did say that there is a moratorium on putting in any new dealerships.

   Did this include the ones that were approved in the fall that have not broken ground yet ?
Thanks ,
 Dave

[Screamin_Beagle]

China will NOT take any inventory.  (no discussion).  The economy there is so deflated that paying $10K for a bike,  where they can pay $650.00 for a scooter is not even reasonable (I've spent a lot of time there and it just won't work........they don't want the "cool" look that bad yet......give it 10 years and maybe).  Korea has some interest,  I saw a 2005 SEEG "yellow" in the dealership with a price on the floor at the eq. of $45K USD( was on the floor for 16 months).  Don't plan on the exports to save the MoCo........Europeans love the home team.....let's face it,  they run smoother,  go faster (stock anyway), handle better and are for most 5'7" riders....more comfortable (where the market is in Europe).
    What's left is the hard core HD owners that have to have American Steel (at this point far and few between,  of course the exchange rate is helping them out).
    Fact is,  every stealership I've been in in the last 6 months,  has a WELL stocked show room( I would argue overstocked.....ALL of them).  Think about that for a minute,  that means that the expansion plan 4-5 years ago maybe was a bad move (hey,  lets build 3 new plants,  increase production,  and the buyers will come)....now the MoCo has to deal with the freakin' unions (I'm not getting off on that topic).  Bottom line is that bike prices are coming down,  dealers will have to deal........premiums on stock bikes are done.......JMFHO



_Beags

[SPIDERMAN]

You go bro !

B B

[Ceej]

Re: China -

     I agree in general the population doesn't have the money, but something is happening there. I am a serious Zippo addict and have a collection of around a 1000 or so. The high end vintage Zippo's bring $500 - $2500 routinely. You could buy a .99 cent lighter at any grocery store here or there, yet the chinese are buying up all the high end Zippo's they can get, as are the Japanese and Germans as of late for some reason. The U.S. Economy may be slowing, but when I look at who's bidding on the $1000 lighters 9 out of 10 are overseas buyers. This is a general economic glimpse for Zippo's at least - The crazy Brits keep paying astronomical figures for Dunhills and Duponts for some reason

[DavidB]

The dude in China that makes the fake Rollex Watches neeeds to build some Zippo lighters , ship them over here, then sell them on ebay back to the Chinese with all the cash.

[Screamin_Beagle]

CEEJ,
    Are we really comparing Zippo lighters to Harley Davidson Motorcycles??  I own 20+ Zippo's........none are a favorite.  Every time I light a smoke it does the job.  When I throw a leg over my cherry bomb and get in the wind,  it's livin' large for me.  Now if you think a $20 lighter is in the same class as a $35K motorcycle you need some serious help (JMO).  If you need the name of a good shrink,  let me know,  I may be able to help you out.  There are big markets everywhere for specific collectables,  New Harley's are not collectables........they are a product manufactured in the United States in huge numbers........numbers that are exceeding consumption (look around at your local stealers...........I've been riding more years than I care to talk about,  but I remember the days where you had to stand in line to get a bike.....and that was if you had a bro at the stealer.........now there are more bikes on the floor's around the country than they can stand).  Therefore,  when the market saturates (and it's close) prices will come down.  Now on the other hand,  Softails and TB's are on strike (I would expect the used bike market to improve a little short term).  None the less,  Asia is not the place to be selling $30K motorcycles.  The upper class there drive jet black Mercedes and BMW's (bikers are not "cool" there), people who ride bikes are the underclass......most ride with masks to keep from breathing the fumes.....so don't tell me that the Asia market is the savior for the MoCo.

Europe is a little different,  they want performance at any cost.  There lies the problem.  HD has never been known for cutting edge performance or engineering brilliance.  HD is an American Icon,  that lives in the hearts of those few of us left to take on the American spirit, and hit the wide open roads of this great country and see it as it is,  whether it be a rain storm,  a blooming orange grove, corn fields forever or just a fine piece of twisting road.  The HD primary market will always be IN the USA as it should be.


I'm off my  



_Beags

[SilverDawg]

CEEJ,
    Are we really comparing Zippo lighters to Harley Davidson Motorcycles??  I own 20+ Zippo's........none are a favorite.  Every time I light a smoke it does the job.  When I throw a leg over my cherry bomb and get in the wind,  it's livin' large for me.  Now if you think a $20 lighter is in the same class as a $35K motorcycle you need some serious help (JMO).  If you need the name of a good shrink,  let me know,  I may be able to help you out.  There are big markets everywhere for specific collectables,  New Harley's are not collectables........they are a product manufactured in the United States in huge numbers........numbers that are exceeding consumption (look around at your local stealers...........I've been riding more years than I care to talk about,  but I remember the days where you had to stand in line to get a bike.....and that was if you had a bro at the stealer.........now there are more bikes on the floor's around the country than they can stand).  Therefore,  when the market saturates (and it's close) prices will come down.  Now on the other hand,  Softails and TB's are on strike (I would expect the used bike market to improve a little short term).  None the less,  Asia is not the place to be selling $30K motorcycles.  The upper class there drive jet black Mercedes and BMW's (bikers are not "cool" there), people who ride bikes are the underclass......most ride with masks to keep from breathing the fumes.....so don't tell me that the Asia market is the savior for the MoCo.

Europe is a little different,  they want performance at any cost.  There lies the problem.  HD has never been known for cutting edge performance or engineering brilliance.  HD is an American Icon,  that lives in the hearts of those few of us left to take on the American spirit, and hit the wide open roads of this great country and see it as it is,  whether it be a rain storm,  a blooming orange grove, corn fields forever or just a fine piece of twisting road.  The HD primary market will always be IN the USA as it should be.


I'm off my  



_Beags

Agree the the US will always be primary, but the MoCo is definitely thinking global as they look for ways to maintain profitiable growth.  Europe, and Asia will be the primary targets and more specifically emerging markets like Russia and China have huge numbers of folks that may some day "throw a leg over"!!  They will follow the same growth markets that most of the auto mfgs. are looking at.

This way they can keep the US from an oversupply, keep dealers profitable, deman high in the US, but still grow their earnings and move the stock price up.  That is the mission of the top level of execs.  The MoCo is looking to grow!!

[jeffj]

What I am hearing is the Government of China is restricting Harley-Davidson in setting up dealerships all accross China
The latest that I heard was they only have One dealership and its being very mandated by Chinese Government
I think the MoCo thought China was the next Cash HOG but someone from the MoCo didn't do his research on Government restrictions
In the long run I am sure the MoCo will have a big presence in China but it will be at China's pace

JMHO

jeffj