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Author Topic: HARLEY STOCK SHARES AND SHIPMENTS SLIDE  (Read 4426 times)

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CVOStreetglide

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charles05663

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Re: HARLEY STOCK SHARES AND SHIPMENTS SLIDE
« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2017, 12:50:39 PM »

I like this quote for what ever it means:

"We are downgrading Harley-Davidson to 'market-perform' based on increased conviction that motorcycle demand in the United States is in the throes of secular erosion," Bernstein analyst David Beckel said.


Secular erosion???

Why don't they just speak plainly:
We can't sell our overpriced motorcycles because our base is dying off and the younger folks don't have the money.

 :oops: :nixweiss:
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ultrarider123

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Re: HARLEY STOCK SHARES AND SHIPMENTS SLIDE
« Reply #2 on: July 18, 2017, 02:10:16 PM »

I like this quote for what ever it means:

"We are downgrading Harley-Davidson to 'market-perform' based on increased conviction that motorcycle demand in the United States is in the throes of secular erosion," Bernstein analyst David Beckel said.


Secular erosion???

Why don't they just speak plainly:
We can't sell our overpriced motorcycles because our base is dying off and the younger folks don't have the money.

 :oops: :nixweiss:

Charles, I like your description much better.  Where do the "analysts" come up with some of their speak?
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CVODON

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Re: HARLEY STOCK SHARES AND SHIPMENTS SLIDE
« Reply #3 on: July 18, 2017, 03:32:35 PM »

Bet they survive, may have a downturn but they are a 100 + year company that been thru World Wars, the Depression & an economy that goes up & down. I support them, just like I do Sears. My life would change in a not good way if we loose either one as both are part of & have been part of my whole life. I accept change but these two are important to me and hopefully to everyone else in this forum.
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Re: Harley losing its cool
« Reply #5 on: July 18, 2017, 04:15:24 PM »

Down 17%?  Time to buy HD stock.  That just makes it a good deal.  Bookmark this post and tell me in a year if I was right or wrong.
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Re: HARLEY STOCK SHARES AND SHIPMENTS SLIDE
« Reply #6 on: July 18, 2017, 04:16:32 PM »

Down 17%?  Time to buy HD stock.  That just makes it a good deal.  Bookmark this post and tell me in a year if I was right or wrong.
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Re: HARLEY STOCK SHARES AND SHIPMENTS SLIDE
« Reply #7 on: July 18, 2017, 04:56:28 PM »

Harley cannot afford to "skip" a generation. Millennials be picky. Baby boomers were a great market for HD.  1990's to early 2000's meant long waits for new bikes.  Harley can maintain business with no growth for a time.  At some point no growth then shrinking sales means a factory closes or a company sells out.  Hope Harley figures it out, they always have in the past, even though the Great Depression.
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Road Dad

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Re: HARLEY STOCK SHARES AND SHIPMENTS SLIDE
« Reply #8 on: July 18, 2017, 05:50:21 PM »

Nobody will invest in a company that does not grow - shareholder sells of - stock price goes down - hostile takeover - foreign owned. Most likely Chinese.

Unfortunately not unlikely.
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mark

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Re: Harley losing its cool
« Reply #9 on: July 18, 2017, 11:59:00 PM »

Down 17%?  Time to buy HD stock.  That just makes it a good deal.  Bookmark this post and tell me in a year if I was right or wrong.

With the customer base dying off, and no generation taking the baby boomers' place in HD showrooms, I'd wouldn't jump on HD stock.  They've had several reporting periods of poor numbers, talk of being bought out by KKR, and they had their hand slapped about a year ago by the financial mags for "creative" reporting of their numbers. 

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Harley in the news
« Reply #10 on: July 19, 2017, 07:27:07 AM »

Harley-Davidson Spirals Down, Announces U.S. Layoffs, Builds Factory In Thailand
Jul.19.17 | About: Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)
Wolf Richter
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Trying to manage a structural decline in a terrible industry.

Shares of Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) dropped 10% on Tuesday morning after the company reported second-quarter earnings and were down nearly 6% at the end of the day. Almost everything was bad.

Retail sales by its dealers in the US fell 9.3% in Q2, compared to a year ago, to 49,668 motorcycles. They were "down more than we anticipated," the company said. And with "soft sales across most markets," sales by its dealers globally fell 6.7%.

"Industry new motorcycle sales deterioration continued," the company said in its presentation, lamenting "weak industry sales on soft used bike prices."

In addition to the industry woes, its market share in Q2 in the US dropped 1 percentage point to 48.5%. Shipments in the quarter fell 7.2% to 81,807 and are down 10.8% year to date.

The 30-day delinquency rate on its $7.5 billion in motorcycle loans outstanding rose to 3.25% from 3.16% a year ago and from 2.7% in Q2 2015. The annualized loss experience on those loans reached 1.71%, the highest for any second quarter since 2010.

Total revenues fell 5.6% to $1.58 billion. Net income fell 7.7% to $258.9 million. And despite blowing $163.2 million on share buybacks in the quarter to lower the share count and thus prop up earnings per share, earnings per share fell 4.5% to $1.48.

Its dealer inventory is bloated, so it offered incentives on its 2016 bikes to clear them out, and that didn't help its 2017 models, but the company said bravely that it is "targeting significantly lower year-end US dealer inventory."

H-D has at least three fundamental problems. One is relatively new, and two have been with it for a few years and it cannot seem to escape them:

    More of its customers are getting financially distressed, hence there are rising delinquencies and losses on its loan book. This issue has also raised its ugly head once again for automakers and other consumer lenders.
    A Hog is the iconic motorcycle for baby boomers, but they don't make baby boomers anymore. The younger generations have other things to spend their money on. H-D has come out with lighter and less expensive models to appeal to the younger crowd, with some success, but not with enough success to make up for the baby boomers who're approaching the end of their riding years in ever larger numbers.
    H-D is selling motorcycles. Motorcycle sales in the US have been a nightmare since the peak in 2005, when the industry sold nearly 1.1 million bikes of all sizes. By 2006, sales were falling. In 2008, sales plunged, bottoming out in 2010, down 60% from the peak. But unlike auto sales, motorcycles never recovered from the Great Recession.
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Re: HARLEY STOCK SHARES AND SHIPMENTS SLIDE
« Reply #11 on: July 19, 2017, 08:05:44 AM »

I agree with Mark - I think this will be a continuous decrease in HD demand and therefore share price.  I think they will survive, but we have seen HD at their peak for shipments and stock price I do believe.
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ultrafxr

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Re: HARLEY STOCK SHARES AND SHIPMENTS SLIDE
« Reply #12 on: July 19, 2017, 05:59:32 PM »

I agree with Mark - I think this will be a continuous decrease in HD demand and therefore share price.  I think they will survive, but we have seen HD at their peak for shipments and stock price I do believe.
I also agree and I'm worried about the staying power of some dealers who invested in those mega stores.


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RonandJanet

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Re: HARLEY STOCK SHARES AND SHIPMENTS SLIDE
« Reply #13 on: July 19, 2017, 09:08:06 PM »

Harley will have challenges but so will the other motorcycle manufactures. If the US would embrace bikes as Europe has then the demand will be back.  Most kids (mine included) are not car (or mechanical) lovers.  They look at them as a way to get from point A to point B period and even that is going away.  Now they can easily use uber etc.  Of my kids and immediate family all my boys had bikes and then left them (need something to get to work and dates). I have a nephew that loves bikes and we are close. He is getting his first Harley this week.  He is rare that he likes bikes that much and enjoys tinkering with them.  The kids he hangs with all have the crotch rockets but he just loves to cruise. I do encourage this direction he is going but also make sure he really wants the Harley.  He will call and we will work though problems with his car, bike or whatever which I enjoy. It is great to have a family member that is young and loves to ride like I do!   
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Re: Harley losing its cool
« Reply #14 on: July 21, 2017, 12:22:31 AM »

Down 17%?  Time to buy HD stock.  That just makes it a good deal.  Bookmark this post and tell me in a year if I was right or wrong.
bookmarked!! 12 months is a very short time for a turn around with a market that is already overvalued.  :nixweiss:
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