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[arcticdude]

BB,
That's the point I've been trying to make all along.  There's way too many fat cats with their hands buried in the markets for them to tank too long.  It will always come back, it's just a matter of when.  Don't sweat the day to day crap, it don't mean anything.  20 years from now and you're looking back on your life, will you worry about some chit you did in the fall of 2008, or how about the spring of 1968?   Nope, you won't; you'll only be comcerned with your life as a whole and how you feel about it.

Hell, look at the late 20's.  What happened to the market then?  Went to hell and a handbasket, right?  Where was it in 1935- well above where it was in 1928 before all the crap started.

I don't believe we've seen the bottom yet.  But it will recover.  Period!

[Talon]

BB,
That's the point I've been trying to make all along.  There's way too many fat cats with their hands buried in the markets for them to tank too long.  It will always come back, it's just a matter of when.  Don't sweat the day to day crap, it don't mean anything.  20 years from now and you're looking back on your life, will you worry about some chit you did in the fall of 2008, or how about the spring of 1968?   Nope, you won't; you'll only be comcerned with your life as a whole and how you feel about it.

Hell, look at the late 20's.  What happened to the market then?  Went to hell and a handbasket, right?  Where was it in 1935- well above where it was in 1928 before all the crap started.

I don't believe we've seen the bottom yet.  But it will recover.  Period!

I agree to a point, but there a lot of small business that would have to lay off people or close their door before it came back. The fat cats will just ride it out, sitting back drinking fine scotch, smoking $50 cigars, and buying up the cheep stock.

[RJ749]

The market shot up 950 something points on the day. Largest one day gain in the history of the exchange. Keeping my fingers crossed on tomorrow and the rest of the week. If it gets back up to within 100 points of where it was July 1st, I'm pulling everything out and putting it all in T-bills till at least January. Don't care if it keeps climbing and I end up down a bit for the year, the last two weeks have made me sick.

B B

I hear you BB.

Cindy got laid off in May and we transferred her 401 to cash in early September.

Friday morning we put the majority of it back in the market.  Tonight up in excess of 16%.

I too hope it stays up and climbs to July numbers.

[FLSTFI Dave]

Now that oil prices have dropped like a rock as the world economy begins to tank, gas prices are finally dropping along with crude prices.  More of a lag than what we saw on the way up, but at least things are going in the right direction.  Now, here's the big question.  Will the average American consumer continue to cut back consumption, or will the past year be forgotten and the waste resume?  I personally have so little faith in the common sense of the typical consumer that I would fully expect to see many/most go right back to their wasteful ways if credit was still available and cheap.  I guess we will all get to see for ourselves as gas drops below that magic $3 number.

Jerry

I fear most will go back to waist full spending, and to large a debt load.  I also feel the some lenders will push for that along with groups like ACORN...

[grc]

Why do you only want July numbers?  I'd much rather see the numbers from October '07, before they began the long slide that culminated in the big crash.  If anyone thinks they've lost a ton just recently (Jul-Oct), recalculate the losses based on a full year (Oct-Sept).  I did, and it makes me really sick.

As for the optimistic approach, where everything quickly goes back to pre-crash numbers, I hope that happens but I doubt it will.  The tech bubble crash at the beginning of the decade decimated my 401k, and it took until Oct '07 for my balance to struggle back to where it was prior to the 2000 crash.  I believe this will be another long term deal, as there has been a ton of money pulled out of the market that nervous folks are going to be very slow to reinvest in the market.  The part that really pi$$es me off is that the greedy bastards who created the mess and walked away with multimillion dollar bonuses and parachutes will now be able to buy up everything on the cheap and profit even more handsomely from their screwing of the rest of us.

Jerry

[SPIDERMAN]

Jerry
        You're absolutely correct (as always) about the past 12 months, but I mention July because that's when my Mom put me in charge of the family estate (property, finances etc) I don't hold myself responsible for anything that my Dad's evil sister did before we tossed her out with the trash. If you want to know what my aunt's like, watch Glen Close in the movie "Cookie's Fortune".

B B

[Free]

Why do you only want July numbers?  I'd much rather see the numbers from October '07, before they began the long slide that culminated in the big crash.  If anyone thinks they've lost a ton just recently (Jul-Oct), recalculate the losses based on a full year (Oct-Sept).  I did, and it makes me really sick.

As for the optimistic approach, where everything quickly goes back to pre-crash numbers, I hope that happens but I doubt it will.  The tech bubble crash at the beginning of the decade decimated my 401k, and it took until Oct '07 for my balance to struggle back to where it was prior to the 2000 crash.  I believe this will be another long term deal, as there has been a ton of money pulled out of the market that nervous folks are going to be very slow to reinvest in the market.  The part that really pi$$es me off is that the greedy bastards who created the mess and walked away with multimillion dollar bonuses and parachutes will now be able to buy up everything on the cheap and profit even more handsomely from their screwing of the rest of us.

Jerry

i think you are right. the difference between this cycle and historical cycles seems to be
1. we enter it with 10T of debt and by some accounts, our deficit next year could be 2T!!
2. the savings of the rest of the world is not going to come into the US as it has in the past which allowed our economy and consumption based GDP to be so strong.
3. we dont make as many things as the world wants - we simply produce less than we used to

This has to put massive pressure on interest rates which will further depress the economy. So its hard to see a strong rebound.  Unfortunately we may have to earn our way out of this mess through real production of goods and services and we wont be able to do it with cheap money any more.

i like the Governments recent approach to buying troubled banks and hopefully replacing the boards and firing the incompetant managers. I would rather see the government taking over those few banks that are incompetant and have failed business models and firing management, fixing it and selling it than to purchase bad debt from these banks.

just my humble opinion.

Free

[RJ749]

Found in my email.......

Back in 1990, the Government seized the Mustang Ranch brothel in Nevada for tax evasion and, as required by law, tried to run it.   They failed and it closed.   Now we are trusting the economy of our country to a pack of nit-wits who couldn't make money running a whore house and selling booze?

[Talon]

Found in my email.......

Back in 1990, the Government seized the Mustang Ranch brothel in Nevada for tax evasion and, as required by law, tried to run it.   They failed and it closed.   Now we are trusting the economy of our country to a pack of nit-wits who couldn't make money running a whore house and selling booze?

Vicious circle, they were the best customers, so they just got their own money back! 

[RJ749]

Vicious circle, they were the best customers, so they just got their own money back! 

Hadn't thought of that, you're most likely right. 

[Hugh Janis]

grapes of wrath, 08

[iski]

The price of oil slumped below 72 dollars on Wednesday, its lowest level for more than 13 months, as recession fears raised concerns about a prolonged drop in energy demand, analysts said.

The global financial crisis will give a vicious twist to an economic slowdown and is hitting world demand for oil, although the effect on emerging economies is unclear, OPEC said on Wednesday.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries slashed its estimate of growth in demand this year and shaved its estimate for 2009, largely because of an "excessive" easing of demand in the United States, the single biggest energy market.

Prices also fell Wednesday on news that a Nigerian court has ordered Anglo-Dutch energy giant Royal Dutch Shell to hand over land to locals, a key demand of armed rebels camped in Nigeria's oil-producing region.

Brent North Sea crude for November delivery fell to 71.60 dollars a barrel -- the lowest level since August 2007 -- before recovering to 72.41 dollars, down 2.12 dollars compared to Tuesday's close.

New York's main contract, light sweet crude for November, shed 1.98 dollars to 76.65 dollars.

Brent crude has fallen by more than half from a record high 147.50 dollars in July, when prices rocketed on fears of supply disruptions.

Oil prices are sliding on "concerns that the coordinated action by central banks over the last week will not be enough to rescue economies from falling into a global recession and hence weighing on oil demand," Sucden analyst Nimit Khamar said.

A top US central banker, Janet Yellen, said Tuesday that the United States "appears to be in a recession." There are also growing fears Japan and Europe are heading for a spell of economic stagnation or recession.

The German economy is heading for a slowdown but the downturn will not be a long-lasting one, Chancellor Angela Merkel said Wednesday. ~ Breitbart 10//15/08

***************************************



Gas prices will " probably never be below $3 again".  Already untrue ($2.90 is south GA already) & less than a month ago heard that quite a bit. Media flaks hysterically oil/gas prices rising - each time - by literally throwing verbage laced with gasoline on their hype.  Then when prices fall (inevitable - petrochemicals are cyclical in nature) they report it with no big fanfare.  Also they continue to remind everyone how awful it was when these prices were so high & other yadda yadda BS.  Media needs certain "bogeymen".  NPR (and others)would have 1/3 of it's day unfilled without their "oil bogeymen" stories when the prices are rising.  But when they fall, NPR (and others) yawns & clucks disapprovingly.

If you listen to media & blindly believe it, you are exactly the sucker they are looking for.  Commodities go up & they go down.  Oil is a commodity.  It just happens to be one of several some ideologues enjoy demagoguing.

The effect of oil prices on inflation - will be interesting to see the spikes vs the valleys & compare.

[FNGw/08SERK]

If you listen to media & blindly believe it, you are exactly the sucker they are looking for.  Commodities go up & they go down.  Oil is a commodity.  It just happens to be one of several some ideologues enjoy demagoguing.

As long as we sheep are willing to buy the Media's manipulations will continue to be sold. Literally! It's all about the money.

[Hoist!]

As long as we sheep are willing to buy the Media's manipulations will continue to be sold. Literally! It's all about the money.

It's all about the OIL!!!

Hoist!

[FNGw/08SERK]

It's all about the OIL!!!

Hoist!

I would argue economic terrorism!!! That was after all the point of the cowardice of 9-11-01