You have to look at it like an insurance policy, because that is basically what it is. You hope you'll never need it, and they hope you'll never use it. If you plan on keeping the bike, or think you will, it's great peace of mind to know that if the bike is 25 months old and the motor takes a crap, you won't have to plunk down 3K or more for repairs. If you have a large enough bank account, and don't mind dipping into it if necessary, the ESP is probably not a great idea.
It's also a good selling point if/when you sell the bike...if a person is looking at two bikes that are basically the same, and one has a 3 year warranty and the other one doesn't, they're more likely to buy the one with the warranty. If you trade, then it's a different matter, but then the extended warranty is the least of your worries, as you're taking a beating on the trade, 9 times out of 10.
Like insurance...I don't know many people who ever get back the money they've spent on insurance policies, no matter what kind they are. If somebody pays cash for a 40K car, they don't HAVE to take out Collision/Theft, but most do, even though they are unlikely to ever use it before getting rid of the car.
