Since I don't know you, what you ride, or how you ride it, and the same goes for you, my input may not be pertinent at all or it may be perfectly so
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I just got a new '12 ("standard") Ultra mid-August. Below are a couple columns from a spreadsheet. 'Total Tank' is a derived figure obtained by multiplying the MPG achieved during the just-replaced tankful by "6". 'Initial "r"' is the value that first popped up on the way from the pump to the street "this" time.
Naturally, in a perfect world, the "current" 'Initial "r"' would coincide with the "next" 'Total Tank', but it doesn't...
I haven't decided whether or how the decision is made to present the initial "r" value, but suspect it has a lot to do with the most recent fuel usage pattern ciphered into how full you just got the tank. So if you're out blazing around and pull into the pump it'll likely be lower than if you'd just got done casually putting a full tank of highway cruise-control under your belt.
Changing levels of oxygenates in the fuel one tank to the next will be a large factor in the spread from one time to the next. I don't believe I've used any oxygenated fuel in what follows, and in fact only two fill-ups were from a single different station than all the others.
Total Tank Initial “r”
222.5 211
217.7 213
229.4 228
232.4 227
248.2 245
221.8 234
249.7 241
244.3 230
235.6 231
233.1 227
238.8 244
216.4 233
252.5 251
250.5 249
238.9 246
243.1 241
239.6 248
236.7 250
256.1 247
249.1 267
242.4 254
255.9 253I've had this bike over two years ... and ... would typically get about 40MPG ... For the past few month's I noticed it ... go from 40 MPG to 31 MPG with no unusual change in riding style, weather, etc. ... The rear of the bike (it's silver) seems to have a lot of black "exhaust" gunk on it like it's running very rich too...
Could be your O2 sensor(s are) going "south". They'll get weak and lazy and act like the engine's running lean.