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[miker]

Makes sense, I am not sure the link will work.  It is in Yahoo Fianance news, as I watch  a cvo worth of profits evaporate today....


http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070907/harley_davidson_outlook.html

Miker

[Spoiled!]

I hope those people that have bikes on order actually get them.

[Fired00d]

This doesn't surprise me at all. I'm on several dealers mail/email lists and I've noticed that several of them were having '07 Clearance Sales/Incentives trying to get the bikes sold before the '08's came in. First time I've seen that happen.

 
Ride Safe,
Fired00d
 

[d o g o l s]

Makes sense, I am not sure the link will work.  It is in Yahoo Fianance news, as I watch  a cvo worth of profits evaporate today....


http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070907/harley_davidson_outlook.html

Miker

just because somebody was talking about HONDA want to buy Harley

[Steve_G]

Black Hills HD told me in July that they weren't going to receive 40 of the new bikes that they expected.  When I found out after the Sturgis rally that my new bike was delayed 6 weeks, they told me the MoCo was cutting them by 80 new bikes!  -One way to keep the prices up, cut supply.  Retail -PLUS

[Twolanerider]

So they are having to build less, having more trouble selling what they are building, having to send 40% overseas to sell even that many but yet, while they could still afford the alternative, don't think it's prudent to just get them right the first time and work harder to avoid building product with such regular systemic problems pissing off so many people who, then, won't buy their next generation of bike from Harley Davidson.  What's the old question?  Which comes first, the chicken or the sick company?

[RedFXR2]

So they are having to build less, having more trouble selling what they are building, having to send  pissing off so many people who, then, won't buy their next generation of bike from Harley Davidson.

I have to make two comments here.

First, hasn't it been part of the HD mystique for generations now, that folks keep buying them again and again, regardless of all their faults?  How many of us right here are repeat HD owners?  Hey, I, myself, came from the bad old days of British bikes.  But I gotta tell you, I have less and less motivation to spend my evenings and weekends fixing broken stuff these days.  Especially stuff that breaks before it's time and cost a bunch to begin with.

As long as HD has been making V-twin bikes, they should have it down perfectly by now. 

Second is more about that current generation of owner and the next one(s).  If the current generation of owner comes back, fine, but if they don't that's OK with the MoCo as well, because the MoCo is trying to figure out how to capture the next generation of owners.  Not any more baby boomers.  This is a problem, though because they need to figure out how to get Generation X and Y buyers to buy HD.  The same people who grew up not even considering American cars/bikes because Japanese ones were more reliable, cheaper to buy and trouble free.  They've got our money, but the next generation might not be so easily pleased.  They might actually expect Honda-like quality for their $20-$30K and that's a problem for HD.

It might be that HD is right on the seam between their past and their future.  The past being that HD people would always buy whatever the MoCo built, however they built it.  The future being much higher expectations from future buyers.

The HD of twenty years from now might look very different.  It might have to, to survive.

[SEULTRA]

Well said....

Just in from MSN: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20642590/

As long as HD has been making V-twin bikes, they should have it down perfectly by now. 

 They might actually expect Honda-like quality for their $20-$30K and that's a problem for HD.

The future being much higher expectations from future buyers.

The HD of twenty years from now might look very different.  It might have to, to survive.

[DavidB]

Just bought more stock.
A few more million and I could be the CEO.

[miker]

Not to wish anyone bad luck, but I wouldn't mind getting a good deal on a used ultra or glide in the next few months.  It doesn't have to be cvo either...

[CVOJOE]

Harley-Davidson is also facing slower sales because its 2008 product lineup is not as innovative as last year's, which was among the most extensive launch of new products in the company's history.

You mean fly-by-wire throttle and ABS are not exciting new innovative features? 

[Twolanerider]

You mean fly-by-wire throttle and ABS are not exciting new innovative features? 

Joe, given Harley's history with things "new" and innovative I'm not sure "exciting" is the emotion I'd feel when guinea pigging so many major new systems as all fall in place together on the 08s.  Giving credit even where it is surprisingly due, however, I've only heard of one throttle control proplem so far and no significant issues with the ABS, new ECM or its combined cruise control and other functions. 

The cynic in me wants to say "give them time."  But maybe this will be a first generation systems release from Harley that was actually ready for prime time?  No rush to judgement.  Harley's history shows they thoroughly deserve the time to see if there are problems.  But maybe they actually got close the first time this time.

[RedFXR2]

You mean fly-by-wire throttle and ABS are not exciting new innovative features? 

Just for persepective, BMW (motorcycles) introduced ABS as standard equipment in 1986. It's hard to regard Harley as "innovative" when they're so far behind the curve.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-lock_brakes


Yamaha put throttle by wire into production in 2006, so Harley's more current on that one, but they're hardly the industry leader.

http://www.mcnews.com.au/NewBikeCatalogue/2006/yamaha/yzf-r6/throttle.htm


Harley has never relied on innovative engineering to sell bikes.  They always knew that the HD crowd would buy HD and nothing else, regardless of current technology.  Nothing wrong with that, IMO, I just wish they'd execute the old technology better.  I mean, why in the heck are we still watching HD make $30K bikes with oil leaks and peeling chrome, for crying out loud?

I really wonder if coming generations of buyers, accustomed to high quality vehicles, will put up with it?

[skreminegul07]

Cutting production by that small number is not going to mean anyone will be with out a bike.  When was the last time you saw a dealer with 150 leftover bikes in September?  Shortages haven't occurred since the production was 200,000 per year.  Now they are approaching 340,000 units.
The dealers will use this to create a fear of shortages to raise the prices of new and used alike.  Do not fall for it. 

The HD exce. said that last year had more innovation, a bigger engine that over heats and leaks and a six speed that makes too much noise.  Yeah, I guess it is hard to top that one in 2008.  In reality, the word is out in every magazine regarding the heat and noise and potential buyers are keeping what they got.  HD themselves talks about the heat in their publications as well.
my .02.

 

[MJZ]

I've been under the impression MoCo made their big profits from licensing and t-shirts while dealers made theirs from service departments and accessories.
As was repeatedly mentioned a few weeks ago in Knoxville, what other manufacturer could get away with producing an inferior product and then putting out publications marketing some fixes they recommend for an addition cost? 

[deucedog]

I've been under the impression MoCo made their big profits from licensing and t-shirts while dealers made theirs from service departments and accessories.
As was repeatedly mentioned a few weeks ago in Knoxville, what other manufacturer could get away with producing an inferior product and then putting out publications marketing some fixes they recommend for an addition cost? 

Very true and quite remarkable, isn't it?  We, including myself, continue to happily drink the Kool-Aid while the dealers and MoCo laugh themselves silly on their way to the bank.  Folks, if you want things to change, we need to stop bleeding Harley Davidson and put a chastity belt on our wallets.  Otherwise, they'll keep doing what they've always done - ship us a "work in progress" instead of a ready-to-ride out of the crate motorcycle

How sad it is that as I sit here waiting to spend nearly $40,0000 for our 08 CVO Ultra to arrive at the dealer, I wonder not what great and far away adventures my wife and I will experience, but rather what pipes and tune I will need to keep my right leg from frying and hope that I won't have to deal with leaking and warping cylinder heads.   And they do it because we continue to let them get away with it year model after year model, plain and simple.

[Hoist!]

If you can be happy with a stock HD, CVO or not, then I agree, they should be more reliable. But if you know that every HD you've had over the years, needed to be modified to your own requirements, it shouldn't be much of a  surprise at all to modify it yourself. All the things you need to do, most will do anyway. The CVO is still a street legal bike. Most want more from them anyway. But I hope no one believes that just because they bought a CVO, that it would be anything more than a fancy regular model. They differentiate it with a bigger motor, but the '07/'08 motors are turning into an embarrassment for them. They're good motors, but need some outside help.

Now, most are getting hung up on the w.....ty thing and feel they need to keep abusing themselves with inferior parts and service to get their money's worth. After 2 years you have no w.....ty left, and are on your own. Make believe you don't have one now, and do what you must to be happy with your bike. If you've done everything right, and the HD chit that's left breaks, you'll still get it fixed under the w.....ty. The more you worry about the w.....ty, or even extend it. The more you get sucked into that vicious system. Set yourself free and do what you want. If you like the bike, and then use the best parts, which probably won't be HD, and use a good shop for your work, they'll start getting the message.

I've loved the bike from day one and got frustrated with the BS problems and Service from my dealer. I finally decided to do things my way, and got lucky and found what appears to be a very capable, caring dealer. But the moment I went that route, I started feeling so much better about everything. Now my bike runs great, and time will tell if my theory holds true. But I'm pretty confident it will. I still worry about the bottom end, but I'll get that under w.....ty, and fix that right to before it goes back in the bike, if it breaks. Now my bike runs the way it should. They provided the foundation. Nothing more. I made it mine. Keep dealing with their system and keep getting disappointed. It's like beating your head against the wall. It feels good when you stop!

FTF & FTW!

Hoist!

[deucedog]

They differentiate it with a bigger motor, but the '07/'08 motors are turning into an embarrassment for them. They're good motors, but need some outside help.

Hoist!

And Hoist, and you correctly point out the greatest concern.  The question on everyone's mind is just how much work (translation: money) are they going to need to ensure ongoing reliability and removal from the "embarrassment" column?

[Hoist!]

And Hoist, and you correctly point out the greatest concern.  The question on everyone's mind is just how much work (translation: money) are they going to need to ensure ongoing reliability and removal from the "embarrassment" column?

The engine alone, w/ exhaust , A/C, real tuning, 2 grand. A real nice performance engine, w/racing quality parts, 5 grand in parts alone. Smile on your face when you're done, PRICELESS!

Hoist!

[SirMichael]

The engine alone, w/ exhaust , A/C, real tuning, 2 grand. A real nice performance engine, w/racing quality parts, 5 grand in parts alone. Smile on your face when you're done, PRICELESS!

Hoist!

Nicely said
 
                          Drinks are on me Hoist,
                                                          MIKE

[Hoist!]

Nicely said
 
                          Drinks are on me Hoist,
                                                          MIKE

Too bad I can't take you up on that in HS Mike. Wish you were going. I'm looking forward to meeting the Sir Michael/Tommyo duo. What a team. You guys crack me up. With a friend like you, Tommyo has no worries while he's going thru his chit! He should be more worried about us! We'll make him more broke than she will!

Hoist!

[SirMichael]

Too bad I can't take you up on that in HS Mike. Wish you were going. I'm looking forward to meeting the Sir Michael/Tommyo duo. What a team. You guys crack me up. With a friend like you, Tommyo has no worries while he's going thru his chit! He should be more worried about us! We'll make him more broke than she will!

Hoist!

Yah, he has no problem spending all my $$$$, My wife wants to know where I keep getting all these Ideas and why they cost so much always, I keep telling her that it's Tommys fault!! Now I try to tell her that you guys have all the expensive ideas, it's not just Tommy anymore 

                                               MIKE

[Hoist!]

Yah, he has no problem spending all my $$$$, My wife wants to know where I keep getting all these Ideas and why they cost so much always, I keep telling her that it's Tommys fault!! Now I try to tell her that you guys have all the expensive ideas, it's not just Tommy anymore 

                                               MIKE

Just blame me Mike! I'll take the bullet!

Hoist!

[SirMichael]

Just blame me Mike! I'll take the bullet!

Hoist!

Shes not looking to shoot anyone yet She enjoys the ride as much as we do, I just have to explain sometimes why we really need things, like how important it is to have a 103, you know stuff like that

                                                            MIKE

[Hoist!]

Shes not looking to shoot anyone yet She enjoys the ride as much as we do, I just have to explain sometimes why we really need things, like how important it is to have a 103, you know stuff like that

                                                            MIKE

That's simple. Just explain that everything you're doing is for her safety and comfort! Right Binx!

Hoist!

[skreminegul07]

I've spoke to the GM at the dealer several times and he states that most money is made in sales over parts, service, and clothes.

[grc]

----------
"Harley's US retail sales have fallen for two consecutive quarters for the first time since the early 1990s. Mr Ziemer expects the market to remain difficult in 2008.

Nonetheless, he indicated that Harley would take a cautious approach to price-cutting. "We're going to make sure that we protect the brand," he said. "We need to work with our dealers to make sure that the market is not over-supplied." Shipments to dealers are expected to be lower than retail sales this year."

----------
Notice that he didn't mention anything about protecting the consumer.  Got to maintain those high prices to keep the dealer's happy, but that means of course that they will sell fewer units.  Wonder what econ 101 class he took flunked? 

Trust me, if things go as I believe they will (at the very least a short term recession), the story will change.  When it starts seriously affecting share price and executive compensation, that "protect the brand" crap will go out the window.  Now that H-D has increased their production capacity and their fixed costs, they need the volume to maintain profitability.  I don't believe the export market can absorb the volume difference.  Thinking about that did bring a smile, however, when I pictured a big bunch of Chinese folks on Harley's, all sitting on the side of the road waiting for repairs to the substandard parts they provide to the MoCo. 

Jerry

[skreminegul07]

----------
"Harley's US retail sales have fallen for two consecutive quarters for the first time since the early 1990s. Mr Ziemer expects the market to remain difficult in 2008.

Nonetheless, he indicated that Harley would take a cautious approach to price-cutting. "We're going to make sure that we protect the brand," he said. "We need to work with our dealers to make sure that the market is not over-supplied." Shipments to dealers are expected to be lower than retail sales this year."

----------
Notice that he didn't mention anything about protecting the consumer.  Got to maintain those high prices to keep the dealer's happy, but that means of course that they will sell fewer units.  Wonder what econ 101 class he took flunked? 

Trust me, if things go as I believe they will (at the very least a short term recession), the story will change.  When it starts seriously affecting share price and executive compensation, that "protect the brand" crap will go out the window.  Now that H-D has increased their production capacity and their fixed costs, they need the volume to maintain profitability.  I don't believe the export market can absorb the volume difference.  Thinking about that did bring a smile, however, when I pictured a big bunch of Chinese folks on Harley's, all sitting on the side of the road waiting for repairs to the substandard parts they provide to the MoCo. 

Jerry

LOL!  Twenty people probably perched on a harley when the 110 locks up!

Cut more costs!  More chit parts!

[beerman]

All we need now is a recall on an important safety feature like......oh....ABS for instance.........

[Midnight Rider]

Just for persepective, BMW (motorcycles) introduced ABS as standard equipment in 1986. It's hard to regard Harley as "innovative" when they're so far behind the curve.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-lock_brakes


Yamaha put throttle by wire into production in 2006, so Harley's more current on that one, but they're hardly the industry leader.

http://www.mcnews.com.au/NewBikeCatalogue/2006/yamaha/yzf-r6/throttle.htm


Harley has never relied on innovative engineering to sell bikes.  They always knew that the HD crowd would buy HD and nothing else, regardless of current technology.  Nothing wrong with that, IMO, I just wish they'd execute the old technology better.  I mean, why in the heck are we still watching HD make $30K bikes with oil leaks and peeling chrome, for crying out loud?

I really wonder if coming generations of buyers, accustomed to high quality vehicles, will put up with it?

In my opinion, no!!  They might buy ONE, but if it gives the kinds of problems that cannot be considered "normal" for most vehicles, it will be their last one. 

[greglyon]

I was told if the ABS fails it shuts off and the brakes will act as though there was no
ABS   Also was advised that the bike comes with a special video explaining the ABS system

[9 1/2 Beers]

HOG   just raised the dividen

[BigR55]

HD is not the only manufacturer who is deaf when it comes to what innovations the customer wants. Appliance manufactures have spent the last forty years designing "innovations". What they have done is made them consideably cheaper so much so that the basic models are really disposable. Is your beer any colder or your cloths really any cleaner than in 1970? In 1965 we had a Maytag front load washer and dryer all in one unit.

The energy and resources invested in "fly by wire" throttle controls should have been directed to KEEPIN MY BIG ARSE COOL!
How long would it take to develop a fan driven oil cooler, heat reflective seat liners or flow through ducts to carry the heat away from the rider and the back cylinder?

[9 1/2 Beers]

09/17 12:31A (DJ) DJ Harley-Davidson Plans To Shut Some Plants For One Week
                  >HOG
Story 0070 (HOG, I/AUT, I/XDJGI, I/XFFX, I/XISL, I/XNYA, I/XSP5, N/DJEN...)
  YORK, Pa. (AP)--About 2,800 Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) workers will be idled
for a week this fall when the company temporarily closes its York County
plant.
  The Milwaukee-based motorcycle maker, which continues to face low dealer
sales, told workers that it will shut down its assembly plants in
Springettsbury Township and Kansas City, Mo., for the week of Nov. 26.
  Harley-Davidson will also shut down three operations in Wisconsin that week,
the company announced Friday.
  The company will not pay its employees during the shutdown but will continue
their health care coverage, company officials said. All laid-off workers will
be recalled after the shutdown.
  Harley-Davidson expects third-quarter shipments to total between 86,000 and
88,000 motorcycles. Previously, the company had expected to ship between
91,000 to 95,000 motorcycles in that period.
  "The company regrets the temporary impact the shipment reduction will have
on so many of its employees as well as its dealers, suppliers and customers,"
company spokeswoman Rebecca Bortner said in an e-mail. "The company believes
this solution is the best option for balancing the needs of our stakeholders
while doing what's right for the long-term prosperity of the company."
  Earlier this year, workers at the Springettsbury plant went on strike for
three weeks when contract negotiations fell through. Workers approved a
three-year contract on Feb. 22.
 
  09-17-07 0031ET
  Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

[miker]

09/17 12:31A (DJ) DJ Harley-Davidson Plans To Shut Some Plants For One Week
                  >HOG
Story 0070 (HOG, I/AUT, I/XDJGI, I/XFFX, I/XISL, I/XNYA, I/XSP5, N/DJEN...)
  YORK, Pa. (AP)--About 2,800 Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) workers will be idled
for a week this fall when the company temporarily closes its York County
plant.
  The Milwaukee-based motorcycle maker, which continues to face low dealer
sales, told workers that it will shut down its assembly plants in
Springettsbury Township and Kansas City, Mo., for the week of Nov. 26.
  Harley-Davidson will also shut down three operations in Wisconsin that week,
the company announced Friday.
  The company will not pay its employees during the shutdown but will continue
their health care coverage, company officials said. All laid-off workers will
be recalled after the shutdown.
  Harley-Davidson expects third-quarter shipments to total between 86,000 and
88,000 motorcycles. Previously, the company had expected to ship between
91,000 to 95,000 motorcycles in that period.
  "The company regrets the temporary impact the shipment reduction will have
on so many of its employees as well as its dealers, suppliers and customers,"
company spokeswoman Rebecca Bortner said in an e-mail. "The company believes
this solution is the best option for balancing the needs of our stakeholders
while doing what's right for the long-term prosperity of the company."
  Earlier this year, workers at the Springettsbury plant went on strike for
three weeks when contract negotiations fell through. Workers approved a
three-year contract on Feb. 22.
 
  09-17-07 0031ET
  Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Now that is loyalty.  They have built a market on it but won't live by the same standards for the employees, no wonder the bikes are junk...

Miker

[skreminegul07]

No wonder the quality remains in the toilet and it takes forever to get parts.  Somewhere in Milwaukee is a really happy employee putting my replacement engine together and another who may decide when it ships.  Please acknowledge sarcasm here.

[grc]

Now that is loyalty.  They have built a market on it but won't live by the same standards for the employees, no wonder the bikes are junk...

Miker

Loyalty:  Blind devotion that is required of the peons by the lords and masters.  Reciprocity is not required, and is in fact frowned on by most of the lords and masters.

I hope no one was surprised by the plant shutdown notice that indicated the employees will be laid off without pay (but the company will magnanimously continue their health care coverage).  Did you really think the greedy jerks running that company would perhaps use the downtime to hold employee training classes or perform other tasks so they would continue to be paid?  The Japanese have been known to do such things, even American auto companies have been known to do such things.  Now, does anyone still not understand why the Harley union folks went on strike earlier?

I have a much better idea:  Take the top 2 or 3 levels in the executive ranks, the folks who make the big decisions, and stop their pay and benefits until they address and rectify the quality issues. Considering the fat salaries, benefits, and bonuses at that level, this would save the company a lot more than screwing the little guys out of a week or two of their pay.  

Jerry

[RedFXR2]

....perhaps use the downtime to hold employee training classes or perform other tasks so they would continue to be paid?  The Japanese have been known to do such things, even American auto companies have been known to do such things.

.... the folks who make the big decisions, and stop their pay and benefits until they address and rectify the quality issues.

Statements like that, thinking like that....you would never fit in at the MoCo.  Don't bother sending them any resumes.

And yes, I'm being sarcastic.

[grc]

Statements like that, thinking like that....you would never fit in at the MoCo.  Don't bother sending them any resumes.

And yes, I'm being sarcastic.

Yeah, I think you're right.  It was probably thoughts and statements like that that stalled my career in the auto industry.  Coming from a blue collar family in a factory town, I probably understand better than many just what this situation feels like.  The company expects the workers to give up personal and family time to work extra hours and weekends when sales are great, but the first hiccup in 15 years comes along and all of a sudden you are expendable. 

Jerry

[RedFXR2]

Coming from a blue collar family in a factory town, I probably understand better than many just what this situation feels like.  The company expects the workers to give up personal and family time to work extra hours and weekends when sales are great, but the first hiccup in 15 years comes along and all of a sudden you are expendable. 

Jerry

If it makes you feel any better, it can happen at the white collar level, too.  Previous career at a huge manufacturing company, here.

When times get tough, those who are retained will be those who know best how things are supposed to "look", according to those in charge.  Throw all reasoning, evidence to the contrary, history, trends, everything, out the window.  Better to play golf with the boss than to have a good handle on problems and solutions.  That might make the current leadership look bad.

Anyway, I have decided that the MoCo is all about selling stuff.  Get them (the customers) to buy stuff.  Whether it's good stuff or not is secondary.  Just get them to buy it.  Assign the problems to Marketing.  If sales slow down come up with a new ad campaign.  Find some new customers to sell the same stuff to. 

I don't think an employee who was writing reports about building customer loyalty through superb quality and value, and the organizational, procedural and cultural changes that would follow would get much attention.  Until he pi$$ed off some managers, that is.

Okay, thread jack and rant over.

[Midnight Rider]

Loyalty:  Blind devotion that is required of the peons by the lords and masters.  Reciprocity is not required, and is in fact frowned on by most of the lords and masters.

I hope no one was surprised by the plant shutdown notice that indicated the employees will be laid off without pay (but the company will magnanimously continue their health care coverage).  Did you really think the greedy jerks running that company would perhaps use the downtime to hold employee training classes or perform other tasks so they would continue to be paid?  The Japanese have been known to do such things, even American auto companies have been known to do such things.  Now, does anyone still not understand why the Harley union folks went on strike earlier?

I have a much better idea:  Take the top 2 or 3 levels in the executive ranks, the folks who make the big decisions, and stop their pay and benefits until they address and rectify the quality issues. Considering the fat salaries, benefits, and bonuses at that level, this would save the company a lot more than screwing the little guys out of a week or two of their pay.  

Jerry

Could not agree with that statement more, Jerry!  There's probably a huge "blame game" going on in the HD management ranks right now.  Kind of like "Trickle Down" economics, it's the regualar folks that wind up getting pissed on.  My contention has always been....and this has been proven to me many times over....that the further up the food chain a person moves, the more they typically lose touch with the reality of the "average Joe".  If Willie G is such a great guy, he could just not take a payday for a couple of months and let those workers get paid while taking some quality control classes, and teach middle management what it means to manage people effectively.   

[RedFXR2]

....that the further up the food chain a person moves, the more they typically lose touch with the reality of the "average Joe".

Right.  But it needs to be said that one won't move up that ladder, or not very far anyway, unless they are invited to the party. and to get invited, they must reflect the philosophy of those in charge.  Only human nature, I suppose.  Are they really losing touch, or are they ignoring/denying  reality in favor of supporting the views of those already in charge?   Guess who will get promoted and rewarded?

It's just an unfortunate organizational fact that the "messenger" bearing bad news still gets shot an awful lot of times.

Corporate culture really is interesting.  Frustrating sometimes, fascinating at others.  But interesting.  Very difficult to truly break and change. 

[RedFXR2]

One thing I would say in the defense of the MoCo:  The shareholders would likely complain about a few lean years in which the profits were plowed back into updated factory equipment and processes, that would eventually result iin better quality and flexibility.  We live in a world of overnight gratification--not much reward for delayed gratification and an eye towrds sacrificing now for the sake of the future.

[Midnight Rider]

Right.  But it needs to be said that one won't move up that ladder, or not very far anyway, unless they are invited to the party. and to get invited, they must reflect the philosophy of those in charge.  Only human nature, I suppose.  Are they really losing touch, or are they ignoring/denying  reality in favor of supporting the views of those already in charge?   Guess who will get promoted and rewarded?

It's just an unfortunate organizational fact that the "messenger" bearing bad news still gets shot an awful lot of times.

Corporate culture really is interesting.  Frustrating sometimes, fascinating at others.  But interesting.  Very difficult to truly break and change. 

Precisely, Red.  One will only get so far by questioning authority.  But, I can't help myself...I've never learned the fine art of BS'ing my way to the top, and quite frankly, don't want to.

It is human nature to some extent, but it helps if people have some clue about human nature to begin with, and are not just greedy SOB's who will step on whoever they must to get where they think they want to be.

[skreminegul07]

They bought the stockholders support by doubling the dividend.  The stockholders don't care that the money is coming out of the workers paychecks.

[Hoist!]

This is getting good now!

And I thought I was the only pissed off bastard here!

Hoist!

[HDbeerman]

Makes sense, I am not sure the link will work.  It is in Yahoo Fianance news, as I watch  a cvo worth of profits evaporate today....


http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070907/harley_davidson_outlook.html

Miker

A 4-7% increase is still good in any business.

[Free]

One thing I would say in the defense of the MoCo:  The shareholders would likely complain about a few lean years in which the profits were plowed back into updated factory equipment and processes, that would eventually result iin better quality and flexibility.  We live in a world of overnight gratification--not much reward for delayed gratification and an eye towrds sacrificing now for the sake of the future.

I think this is an important distinction. 30 years ago, most buyers of stock were individuals (not institutions) and they were "investors".  Now, its institutional driven and most are "speculators" who are very short term focused.

Free

[miker]

The shot they have taken from 70+ is big, divi or not, caught the short from 55, covered at 49 and change. How many are getting laid off?  I would love for some to post here to get the inside poop.

Recovery will take a loong time. I still have a certificate for 10 shares from back in the amf take back days but is hanging on the wall, ...I hold no trading position in hog anymore, I think the last instruments I held were under HDI.  I am heavily invested in the product though and probably ain't done yet.  I need a geezer glide and a road glide to fill up the garage. 

[9 1/2 Beers]

09/19  4:30P (DJ) PRESS RELEASE: Harley-Davidson, Inc. Web-Cast Conference
                  Call Scheduled for Friday, October 19, 2007
Story 8178 (HOG, I/AUT, I/XDJGI, I/XFFX, I/XISL, I/XNYA, I/XSP5, N/DJIN...)
  MILWAUKEE, Sept. 19 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:
HOG) today announced that it is scheduled to release its third quarter 2007
financial results before market hours on Friday, October 19, 2007.  On Friday,
October 19, 2007, the public is invited to participate in a web-cast
conference call with Jim Ziemer, President and CEO, and Tom Bergmann, Vice
President and CFO, Harley-Davidson, Inc., from 8:00 AM to 9:00 AM (Central
Time).
 
  It is suggested that web-cast participants log on and register at least ten
minutes prior to the start time at http://www.harley-davidson.com, under the
Investor Relations section.  A replay of the web-cast will be available at the
same location approximately two hours after the call concludes.
 
  Harley-Davidson, Inc. is the parent company for the group of companies doing
business as Harley-Davidson Motor Company, Buell Motorcycle Company and
Harley-Davidson Financial Services.  Harley-Davidson Motor Company, the only
major U.S.-based motorcycle manufacturer, produces heavyweight motorcycles and
offers a complete line of motorcycle parts, accessories, apparel, and general
merchandise.  Buell Motorcycle Company produces sport motorcycles.
Harley-Davidson Financial Services provides wholesale and retail financing and
insurance programs to Harley-Davidson dealers and customers.
 
SOURCE  Harley-Davidson, Inc.
 
    /CONTACT: Media, Bob Klein, +1-414-343-4433, or Financial, Mark Van
Genderen, +1-414-343-8002, both of Harley-Davidson, Inc.
    /Web site: http://www.harley-davidson.com
 
  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

[ccr]

...Harley-Davidson Plans To Shut Some Plants For One Week
...  The Milwaukee-based motorcycle maker, which continues to face low dealer
sales, told workers that it will shut down its assembly plants in
Springettsbury Township and Kansas City, Mo., for the week of Nov. 26.
  Harley-Davidson will also shut down three operations in Wisconsin that week,
the company announced Friday.
  The company will not pay its employees during the shutdown ...

Isn't that a nice Christmas present to the employees.  Just one month shy of trying to get some presents for under a tree, some food for the table, you will loose a whole week's wages.  Nice!   

[miker]

You treat your own like and expect something as a customer? 

Miker

[9 1/2 Beers]

 Harley-Davidson: UBS notes U.S. retail sales may not be as bad as August would suggest (46.70 ) : UBS believes HOG's U.S. retail sales at the dealer level during July and Aug may have been up 1-2% YoY, bringing year-to-date sales thru August down ~4%. Despite volatility during July/August (July +24%, August -22%) likely caused by changes in timing of new model introductions, this is roughly in line with the overall motorcycle industry during the same period. Firm believes Q3 retail sales may be closer to flat to down 5% and not as bad as August suggests.

[9 1/2 Beers]

10/19  7:34A (DJ)=DJ UPDATE: Harley-Davidson 3Q Net Down On Sales Weakness
Story 2184 (H/, HOG, I/AUT, I/XDJGI, I/XFFX, I/XISL, I/XNYA, I/XSP5...)
   DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
 
  Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG), which last month warned that the slowing economy
would result in lower sales and profits, on Friday posted a 15% drop in
third-quarter net income and said it continues to see a challenging U.S.
retail market in 2008.
  The iconic motorcycle maker reported net income of $265 million, or $1.07 a
share, for the quarter, compared down from $312.7 million, or $1.20 a share, a
year earlier. During the quarter, the company repurchased $509 million of its
common stock.
  Net revenue fell 5.8% to $1.54 billion.
  On average, analysts polled by Thomson Financial had expected the Milwaukee
company to post earnings of $1.05 a share on revenue of $1.52 billion.
  In September, Harley-Davidson said sharp sales weakness in August tied to an
economic slowdown would lead it to reduce estimated third-quarter shipments to
a range of 86,000 to 88,000 motorcycles, from 91,000 to 95,000 previously.
Shipments came in at 86,535, down 11%.
  Motorcycle sales fell 8.6% to $1.18 billion, while parts-and-accessories
sales rose 1.2% to $251.5 million. Gross margin fell to 38.4% from 39.9%.
  Harley's recent growth has been driven by overseas demand as buyers in its
core U.S. market are having a more difficult time paying upward of $25,000 for
a new motorcycle amid rising mortgage rates and a slumping housing market.
  Last month, Harley-Davidson projected 2007 shipments of 328,000 to 332,000
motorcycles, with per-share earnings seeing falling 4% to 6% with a "modest
decline" in revenue and lower margins. That outlook was reiterated Friday, as
was the 2008 outlook, which again included a warning that the company expects
the 2008 U.S. retail environment to continue to be challenging.
  Shares of Harley-Davidson closed Thursday at $48.95 and rose 5 cents in
recent premarket trading.
  -By Kevin Kingsbury and Mike Barris, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2136
 
  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

[Hoist!]

Saw this the other day.

"Harley's outlook runs out of gas

CHICAGO – Harley-Davidson Inc has warned Wall Street that its third-quarter earnings, due Friday, won't be pretty.

The U.S. motorcycle maker has also admitted its full-year results will disappoint – and slashed its outlook for next year and completely withdrawn its forecast for 2009.

The immediate problem, the Milwaukee-based company says, is the "uncertainty" surrounding the health of the economy in the United States, its most important market, where falling house prices have made consumers reluctant to buy big-ticket toys like motorcycles, boats, motorhomes and trailers.

"The economy's a little soft and people have cut back a little bit," says Peter Jankovskis, the chief investment officer at OakBrook Investments in Lisle, Illinois, which owns Harley shares.

But whether the current woes are a short-term phenomenon that will fix itself once consumer confidence returns, or masking the start of a long-term, more significant demographics-driven slide is a matter of debate among analysts.

Jankovskis is upbeat. "Once the economy recovers," he says, "Harley will recover, and when it does, Wall Street will come back to it."

But others are less optimistic. Harley's sales growth has been slowing since 2002 due to what analyst Bob Simonson at William Blair & Co. calls "the subtle but important decline" in males 40 to 50 years old – Harley's traditional customer.

As a result, Simonson sees the company's earnings "stagnating" in the near term and wonders if Harley is "approaching the point of maximum profit uncertainty with cyclical pressures" intensifying its demographic problems.

"It's going to be an issue for them for the next 12 to 15 years," Simonson says. "That's just in their face."

The stock, which was trading above $75 last fall (dollar figures U.S.), has tumbled 30 per cent this year, most of that during the last three months. However, it has bounced off the 52-week low of $45.67 it hit early in October."

Hoist!

[miker]

Dang coulda covered another 5-7 bucks on the short...Oh well.
Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.

Miker

[9 1/2 Beers]

bulls, bears ,and hogs

you can't go broke making a profit

[miker]

And how!  Stuck long on all of em today.

Miker

[kojak]

Good opportunity to buy HD stock is near! All this noise simply means we are heading for a US recession. HD will do fine because they cant get enough of these bikes overseas to even come close to satisfying demand.

[CVOJOE]

Milwaukee, Wis. (October 19, 2007) - Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) today announced its results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2007. Revenue for the quarter was $1.54 billion compared to $1.64 billion in the year ago quarter, a 5.8 percent decrease. Net income for the quarter was $265.0 million compared to $312.7 million, a decrease of 15.3 percent versus the third quarter of 2006. Third quarter diluted earnings per share were $1.07, a 10.8 percent decrease compared to last year’s $1.20. During the third quarter the Company repurchased $509 million of its common stock. “Harley-Davidson’s third quarter financial results are disappointing but not unexpected. In early September, we announced that we would reduce planned motorcycle shipments for the rest of 2007, and our results for the quarter are consistent with the Company’s revised guidance,” said Jim Ziemer, Chief Executive Officer of Harley-Davidson, Inc. “Worldwide retail sales of Harley-Davidson® motorcycles during the third quarter were virtually flat with the third quarter of 2006, down 0.2 percent. U.S. retail sales continued to be sluggish, finishing down 2.5 percent for the quarter, while retail sales in our international markets grew 8.8 percent during the period,” said Ziemer.

For the full year of 2007, the Company expects a shipment range of 328,000 to 332,000 Harley-Davidson motorcycles, compared to 349,196 units in 2006. The Company also expects a modest decline in revenue and lower operating margin in 2007. Diluted earnings per share for the full year are expected to decrease 4 to 6 percent compared to 2006. Looking ahead to 2008, the Company anticipates that the U.S. retail motorcycle environment will continue to be challenging. It expects moderate revenue growth, lower operating margin and diluted earnings per share to grow between 4 and 7 percent compared to 2007. “For the longer term, I am optimistic and confident about our future,” said Ziemer. “Harley-Davidson has a strong business model, and we will continue to manage the Company in a manner that strengthens our brand and contributes to lasting success for all of our stakeholders,” said Ziemer.

Revenue from Harley-Davidson motorcycles was $1.18 billion, a decrease of $110.7 million or 8.6 percent versus the same period last year. Shipments of Harley-Davidson motorcycles totaled 86,535 units, a decrease of 10,511 units or 10.8 percent compared to last year’s third quarter. Revenue from Parts and Accessories (P&A), which consists of Genuine Motor Parts and Genuine Motor Accessories, totaled $251.5 million, an increase of $3.1 million or 1.2 percent over the year-ago quarter. Revenue from General Merchandise, which consists of MotorClothes® apparel and collectibles, totaled $83.2 million, an increase of $11.9 million or 16.7 percent over the year-ago quarter.

Gross margin for the third quarter of 2007 was 38.4 percent of revenue compared to 39.9 percent for the third quarter last year. Third quarter operating margin decreased to 23.2 percent from 26.5 percent in the third quarter of 2006. During the third quarter, worldwide retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles decreased 0.2 percent compared to the third quarter of 2006. U.S. retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles decreased 2.5 percent for the quarter. The heavyweight motorcycle market in the U.S. decreased 4.4 percent for the same period. Retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles grew 8.8 percent in the Company’s international markets during the third quarter of 2007 compared to the third quarter of 2006. Third quarter retail sales increased 10.7 percent in Europe; Canada was down 7.7 percent; and Japan was up 9.1 percent. All other international markets combined were up 20.8 percent.

During the first nine months of 2007, worldwide retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles decreased 0.9 percent compared to the prior year. In the U.S., Harley-Davidson dealer retail sales decreased 4.7 percent for the first nine months of the year; international sales increased by 12.9 percent for the same period. The U.S. heavyweight motorcycle market was down 4.4 percent for the first nine months of 2007.

 

[VAZHOG]

and that's because of aging and Death 

[Steve_G]

Their revenues will decrease a little bit in the future because of me!  The bike I just bought is my last "hobby sickle".