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[Hoist!]

This is getting good now!

And I thought I was the only pissed off bastard here!

Hoist!

[HDbeerman]

Makes sense, I am not sure the link will work.  It is in Yahoo Fianance news, as I watch  a cvo worth of profits evaporate today....


http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070907/harley_davidson_outlook.html

Miker

A 4-7% increase is still good in any business.

[Free]

One thing I would say in the defense of the MoCo:  The shareholders would likely complain about a few lean years in which the profits were plowed back into updated factory equipment and processes, that would eventually result iin better quality and flexibility.  We live in a world of overnight gratification--not much reward for delayed gratification and an eye towrds sacrificing now for the sake of the future.

I think this is an important distinction. 30 years ago, most buyers of stock were individuals (not institutions) and they were "investors".  Now, its institutional driven and most are "speculators" who are very short term focused.

Free

[miker]

The shot they have taken from 70+ is big, divi or not, caught the short from 55, covered at 49 and change. How many are getting laid off?  I would love for some to post here to get the inside poop.

Recovery will take a loong time. I still have a certificate for 10 shares from back in the amf take back days but is hanging on the wall, ...I hold no trading position in hog anymore, I think the last instruments I held were under HDI.  I am heavily invested in the product though and probably ain't done yet.  I need a geezer glide and a road glide to fill up the garage. 

[9 1/2 Beers]

09/19  4:30P (DJ) PRESS RELEASE: Harley-Davidson, Inc. Web-Cast Conference
                  Call Scheduled for Friday, October 19, 2007
Story 8178 (HOG, I/AUT, I/XDJGI, I/XFFX, I/XISL, I/XNYA, I/XSP5, N/DJIN...)
  MILWAUKEE, Sept. 19 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:
HOG) today announced that it is scheduled to release its third quarter 2007
financial results before market hours on Friday, October 19, 2007.  On Friday,
October 19, 2007, the public is invited to participate in a web-cast
conference call with Jim Ziemer, President and CEO, and Tom Bergmann, Vice
President and CFO, Harley-Davidson, Inc., from 8:00 AM to 9:00 AM (Central
Time).
 
  It is suggested that web-cast participants log on and register at least ten
minutes prior to the start time at http://www.harley-davidson.com, under the
Investor Relations section.  A replay of the web-cast will be available at the
same location approximately two hours after the call concludes.
 
  Harley-Davidson, Inc. is the parent company for the group of companies doing
business as Harley-Davidson Motor Company, Buell Motorcycle Company and
Harley-Davidson Financial Services.  Harley-Davidson Motor Company, the only
major U.S.-based motorcycle manufacturer, produces heavyweight motorcycles and
offers a complete line of motorcycle parts, accessories, apparel, and general
merchandise.  Buell Motorcycle Company produces sport motorcycles.
Harley-Davidson Financial Services provides wholesale and retail financing and
insurance programs to Harley-Davidson dealers and customers.
 
SOURCE  Harley-Davidson, Inc.
 
    /CONTACT: Media, Bob Klein, +1-414-343-4433, or Financial, Mark Van
Genderen, +1-414-343-8002, both of Harley-Davidson, Inc.
    /Web site: http://www.harley-davidson.com
 
  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

[ccr]

...Harley-Davidson Plans To Shut Some Plants For One Week
...  The Milwaukee-based motorcycle maker, which continues to face low dealer
sales, told workers that it will shut down its assembly plants in
Springettsbury Township and Kansas City, Mo., for the week of Nov. 26.
  Harley-Davidson will also shut down three operations in Wisconsin that week,
the company announced Friday.
  The company will not pay its employees during the shutdown ...

Isn't that a nice Christmas present to the employees.  Just one month shy of trying to get some presents for under a tree, some food for the table, you will loose a whole week's wages.  Nice!   

[miker]

You treat your own like and expect something as a customer? 

Miker

[9 1/2 Beers]

 Harley-Davidson: UBS notes U.S. retail sales may not be as bad as August would suggest (46.70 ) : UBS believes HOG's U.S. retail sales at the dealer level during July and Aug may have been up 1-2% YoY, bringing year-to-date sales thru August down ~4%. Despite volatility during July/August (July +24%, August -22%) likely caused by changes in timing of new model introductions, this is roughly in line with the overall motorcycle industry during the same period. Firm believes Q3 retail sales may be closer to flat to down 5% and not as bad as August suggests.

[9 1/2 Beers]

10/19  7:34A (DJ)=DJ UPDATE: Harley-Davidson 3Q Net Down On Sales Weakness
Story 2184 (H/, HOG, I/AUT, I/XDJGI, I/XFFX, I/XISL, I/XNYA, I/XSP5...)
   DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
 
  Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG), which last month warned that the slowing economy
would result in lower sales and profits, on Friday posted a 15% drop in
third-quarter net income and said it continues to see a challenging U.S.
retail market in 2008.
  The iconic motorcycle maker reported net income of $265 million, or $1.07 a
share, for the quarter, compared down from $312.7 million, or $1.20 a share, a
year earlier. During the quarter, the company repurchased $509 million of its
common stock.
  Net revenue fell 5.8% to $1.54 billion.
  On average, analysts polled by Thomson Financial had expected the Milwaukee
company to post earnings of $1.05 a share on revenue of $1.52 billion.
  In September, Harley-Davidson said sharp sales weakness in August tied to an
economic slowdown would lead it to reduce estimated third-quarter shipments to
a range of 86,000 to 88,000 motorcycles, from 91,000 to 95,000 previously.
Shipments came in at 86,535, down 11%.
  Motorcycle sales fell 8.6% to $1.18 billion, while parts-and-accessories
sales rose 1.2% to $251.5 million. Gross margin fell to 38.4% from 39.9%.
  Harley's recent growth has been driven by overseas demand as buyers in its
core U.S. market are having a more difficult time paying upward of $25,000 for
a new motorcycle amid rising mortgage rates and a slumping housing market.
  Last month, Harley-Davidson projected 2007 shipments of 328,000 to 332,000
motorcycles, with per-share earnings seeing falling 4% to 6% with a "modest
decline" in revenue and lower margins. That outlook was reiterated Friday, as
was the 2008 outlook, which again included a warning that the company expects
the 2008 U.S. retail environment to continue to be challenging.
  Shares of Harley-Davidson closed Thursday at $48.95 and rose 5 cents in
recent premarket trading.
  -By Kevin Kingsbury and Mike Barris, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2136
 
  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

[Hoist!]

Saw this the other day.

"Harley's outlook runs out of gas

CHICAGO – Harley-Davidson Inc has warned Wall Street that its third-quarter earnings, due Friday, won't be pretty.

The U.S. motorcycle maker has also admitted its full-year results will disappoint – and slashed its outlook for next year and completely withdrawn its forecast for 2009.

The immediate problem, the Milwaukee-based company says, is the "uncertainty" surrounding the health of the economy in the United States, its most important market, where falling house prices have made consumers reluctant to buy big-ticket toys like motorcycles, boats, motorhomes and trailers.

"The economy's a little soft and people have cut back a little bit," says Peter Jankovskis, the chief investment officer at OakBrook Investments in Lisle, Illinois, which owns Harley shares.

But whether the current woes are a short-term phenomenon that will fix itself once consumer confidence returns, or masking the start of a long-term, more significant demographics-driven slide is a matter of debate among analysts.

Jankovskis is upbeat. "Once the economy recovers," he says, "Harley will recover, and when it does, Wall Street will come back to it."

But others are less optimistic. Harley's sales growth has been slowing since 2002 due to what analyst Bob Simonson at William Blair & Co. calls "the subtle but important decline" in males 40 to 50 years old – Harley's traditional customer.

As a result, Simonson sees the company's earnings "stagnating" in the near term and wonders if Harley is "approaching the point of maximum profit uncertainty with cyclical pressures" intensifying its demographic problems.

"It's going to be an issue for them for the next 12 to 15 years," Simonson says. "That's just in their face."

The stock, which was trading above $75 last fall (dollar figures U.S.), has tumbled 30 per cent this year, most of that during the last three months. However, it has bounced off the 52-week low of $45.67 it hit early in October."

Hoist!

[miker]

Dang coulda covered another 5-7 bucks on the short...Oh well.
Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.

Miker

[9 1/2 Beers]

bulls, bears ,and hogs

you can't go broke making a profit

[miker]

And how!  Stuck long on all of em today.

Miker

[kojak]

Good opportunity to buy HD stock is near! All this noise simply means we are heading for a US recession. HD will do fine because they cant get enough of these bikes overseas to even come close to satisfying demand.

[CVOJOE]

Milwaukee, Wis. (October 19, 2007) - Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) today announced its results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2007. Revenue for the quarter was $1.54 billion compared to $1.64 billion in the year ago quarter, a 5.8 percent decrease. Net income for the quarter was $265.0 million compared to $312.7 million, a decrease of 15.3 percent versus the third quarter of 2006. Third quarter diluted earnings per share were $1.07, a 10.8 percent decrease compared to last year’s $1.20. During the third quarter the Company repurchased $509 million of its common stock. “Harley-Davidson’s third quarter financial results are disappointing but not unexpected. In early September, we announced that we would reduce planned motorcycle shipments for the rest of 2007, and our results for the quarter are consistent with the Company’s revised guidance,” said Jim Ziemer, Chief Executive Officer of Harley-Davidson, Inc. “Worldwide retail sales of Harley-Davidson® motorcycles during the third quarter were virtually flat with the third quarter of 2006, down 0.2 percent. U.S. retail sales continued to be sluggish, finishing down 2.5 percent for the quarter, while retail sales in our international markets grew 8.8 percent during the period,” said Ziemer.

For the full year of 2007, the Company expects a shipment range of 328,000 to 332,000 Harley-Davidson motorcycles, compared to 349,196 units in 2006. The Company also expects a modest decline in revenue and lower operating margin in 2007. Diluted earnings per share for the full year are expected to decrease 4 to 6 percent compared to 2006. Looking ahead to 2008, the Company anticipates that the U.S. retail motorcycle environment will continue to be challenging. It expects moderate revenue growth, lower operating margin and diluted earnings per share to grow between 4 and 7 percent compared to 2007. “For the longer term, I am optimistic and confident about our future,” said Ziemer. “Harley-Davidson has a strong business model, and we will continue to manage the Company in a manner that strengthens our brand and contributes to lasting success for all of our stakeholders,” said Ziemer.

Revenue from Harley-Davidson motorcycles was $1.18 billion, a decrease of $110.7 million or 8.6 percent versus the same period last year. Shipments of Harley-Davidson motorcycles totaled 86,535 units, a decrease of 10,511 units or 10.8 percent compared to last year’s third quarter. Revenue from Parts and Accessories (P&A), which consists of Genuine Motor Parts and Genuine Motor Accessories, totaled $251.5 million, an increase of $3.1 million or 1.2 percent over the year-ago quarter. Revenue from General Merchandise, which consists of MotorClothes® apparel and collectibles, totaled $83.2 million, an increase of $11.9 million or 16.7 percent over the year-ago quarter.

Gross margin for the third quarter of 2007 was 38.4 percent of revenue compared to 39.9 percent for the third quarter last year. Third quarter operating margin decreased to 23.2 percent from 26.5 percent in the third quarter of 2006. During the third quarter, worldwide retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles decreased 0.2 percent compared to the third quarter of 2006. U.S. retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles decreased 2.5 percent for the quarter. The heavyweight motorcycle market in the U.S. decreased 4.4 percent for the same period. Retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles grew 8.8 percent in the Company’s international markets during the third quarter of 2007 compared to the third quarter of 2006. Third quarter retail sales increased 10.7 percent in Europe; Canada was down 7.7 percent; and Japan was up 9.1 percent. All other international markets combined were up 20.8 percent.

During the first nine months of 2007, worldwide retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles decreased 0.9 percent compared to the prior year. In the U.S., Harley-Davidson dealer retail sales decreased 4.7 percent for the first nine months of the year; international sales increased by 12.9 percent for the same period. The U.S. heavyweight motorcycle market was down 4.4 percent for the first nine months of 2007.