So I went to the dealer yesterday. They had pulled the primary off and the issue was not what the service manager told me but that something had gotten flung up from the drive pulley. They told me the pulley had a gouge in it. I have no clue how somethung could get in there but apparently it did. $1800 to fix it. Need a new tranny case.
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Just because he says it doesn't make it so; and he gets by with it without question only if you don't question. What you're being told may not be impossible (so little really is in the age of Harley Magic) but it just doesn't pass the sniff test.
In the image below is your picture on the left. Take a look there first. So, apparently, something struck it from the outside that caused it to break from the inside out and did this so precisely that there was not a mark on the inner primary case immediately adjacent to it. To only barely illustrate the difficulty of that I added a red line separating the tranny case and the primary.
Now look to the right half of the picture. The pulley is well aft of the point of contact. The transmission shown is from an earlier bike but the path that would have to be traversed isn't that dissimilar. Note that there are hard points of contact well before the breakage are. Points of contact between the tranny and inner primary that the shrapnel supposedly responsible for this would have had to bypass.
Note the red lines and arrows roughly illustrating the up-down-and-around that something from the pulley would have to do to make forward, down, up and then one of a couple of potential almost 180 degree paths back to make it to your area of breakage. The last terrestrial object that made this circuitous of a path to do damage at its terminus was Lee Harvey Oswald's single round that hit Kennedy and Connolly in multiple places on their various bodies. Your particular magic bullet still had to then manage to get the transmission case to break:
1) From the inside out
2) Opposite the direction of whatever hit it
3) And without leaving even the tiniest of impact marks on the inner primary that was literally touching it at the point of breakage
All that being so someone should ask the responsible tech here who is going through so many hoops to avoid a warranty claim, "uh, dude, which is more likely, that Lee Harvey managed another incredible shot (this time with road debris and from beyond the grave) or that I just had a transmission case with a bad spot in its casting that just gave way?"